Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 62% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Bed Count, Commercial Payer %. Risks: Occupancy Rate. Risk-adjusted uplift: $0.6M (vs $0.9M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $344K | $344K | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $332K | $9K | $341K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $53K | $157K | $210K | $661K | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $11K | $11K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 56.2% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $86K | $172K | $258K | $344K | $344K | $344K | $344K |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $85K | $171K | $256K | $341K | $341K | $341K | $341K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $70K | $140K | $210K | $210K | $210K | $210K | $210K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $6K | $11K | $11K | $11K | $11K | $11K | $11K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $247K | $493K | $735K | $906K | $906K | $906K | $906K |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $906K is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 62% / 11.1x | 66% / 12.7x | 70% / 14.3x | 72% / 15.1x | 74% / 15.9x |
| 9.0x | 57% / 9.5x | 61% / 10.9x | 65% / 12.3x | 67% / 13.1x | 69% / 13.8x |
| 10.0x | 52% / 8.2x | 57% / 9.5x | 61% / 10.8x | 63% / 11.4x | 65% / 12.1x |
| 11.0x | 48% / 7.2x | 53% / 8.4x | 57% / 9.5x | 59% / 10.1x | 61% / 10.7x |
| 12.0x | 45% / 6.3x | 49% / 7.4x | 53% / 8.4x | 55% / 9.0x | 57% / 9.5x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 28% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 4.7x, adding 3.8 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $1.1M | — | $1.1M | 6.5% |
| Year 1 | $1.2M | +$604K | $1.8M | 10.2% |
| Year 2 | $1.2M | +$906K | $2.1M | 12.2% |
| Year 3 | $1.2M | +$906K | $2.1M | 12.4% |
| Year 4 | $1.3M | +$906K | $2.2M | 12.6% |
| Year 5 | $1.3M | +$906K | $2.2M | 12.8% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $172K | $258K | $344K | $413K |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $171K | $256K | $341K | $409K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $105K | $157K | $210K | $251K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $6K | $8K | $11K | $13K |
| Total | $453K | $680K | $906K | $1.1M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 172 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 6.5% | -46.0% | -16.8% | 8.7% | P72 |
| Net-to-Gross | 50.7% | 25.8% | 39.5% | 56.2% | P70 |
| Occupancy | 23.8% | 12.3% | 23.2% | 45.6% | P51 |
| Rev/Bed | $1.1M | $454K | $733K | $1.4M | P63 |
| Exp/Bed | $1.0M | $588K | $1.0M | $1.6M | P48 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.