Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 68% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Commercial Payer %, Bed Count. Risks: Occupancy Rate. Risk-adjusted uplift: $0.7M (vs $1.1M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $399K | $399K | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $384K | $11K | $395K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $61K | $182K | $243K | $766K | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $13K | $13K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 57.6% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $100K | $200K | $300K | $399K | $399K | $399K | $399K |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $99K | $198K | $297K | $395K | $395K | $395K | $395K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $81K | $162K | $243K | $243K | $243K | $243K | $243K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $6K | $13K | $13K | $13K | $13K | $13K | $13K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $286K | $572K | $852K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $1.1M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 72% / 15.2x | 77% / 17.3x | 81% / 19.3x | 83% / 20.4x | 84% / 21.4x |
| 9.0x | 67% / 13.2x | 72% / 15.0x | 76% / 16.8x | 78% / 17.7x | 80% / 18.6x |
| 10.0x | 63% / 11.5x | 67% / 13.2x | 71% / 14.8x | 73% / 15.6x | 75% / 16.4x |
| 11.0x | 59% / 10.2x | 63% / 11.7x | 67% / 13.2x | 69% / 13.9x | 71% / 14.7x |
| 12.0x | 55% / 9.1x | 60% / 10.4x | 64% / 11.8x | 66% / 12.5x | 67% / 13.2x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 45% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 3.6x, adding 4.9 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $769K | — | $769K | 3.9% |
| Year 1 | $792K | +$700K | $1.5M | 7.5% |
| Year 2 | $816K | +$1.1M | $1.9M | 9.3% |
| Year 3 | $840K | +$1.1M | $1.9M | 9.5% |
| Year 4 | $866K | +$1.1M | $1.9M | 9.6% |
| Year 5 | $892K | +$1.1M | $1.9M | 9.7% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $200K | $300K | $399K | $479K |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $198K | $297K | $395K | $475K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $122K | $182K | $243K | $292K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $6K | $10K | $13K | $15K |
| Total | $525K | $788K | $1.1M | $1.3M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 54 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 3.9% | -45.1% | -17.7% | -5.8% | P89 |
| Net-to-Gross | 49.2% | 28.4% | 45.5% | 57.6% | P62 |
| Occupancy | 40.7% | 15.5% | 28.4% | 52.7% | P59 |
| Rev/Bed | $1.4M | $327K | $604K | $850K | P87 |
| Exp/Bed | $1.4M | $504K | $730K | $1.2M | P81 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.