Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 66% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Bed Count, Net-to-Gross Ratio. Risks: Revenue per Bed, Occupancy Rate. Risk-adjusted uplift: $0.4M (vs $0.6M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $203K | $8K | $211K | $0 | 12mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $211K | $211K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $32K | $96K | $128K | $405K | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $10K | $10K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 47.4% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $53K | $106K | $159K | $211K | $211K | $211K | $211K |
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $53K | $106K | $158K | $211K | $211K | $211K | $211K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $43K | $86K | $128K | $128K | $128K | $128K | $128K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $5K | $10K | $10K | $10K | $10K | $10K | $10K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $153K | $306K | $455K | $560K | $560K | $560K | $560K |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $560K is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 104% / 35.3x | 109% / 39.6x | 113% / 43.9x | 115% / 46.0x | 117% / 48.1x |
| 9.0x | 99% / 31.0x | 103% / 34.8x | 108% / 38.6x | 110% / 40.5x | 112% / 42.4x |
| 10.0x | 94% / 27.6x | 99% / 31.0x | 103% / 34.4x | 105% / 36.1x | 107% / 37.9x |
| 11.0x | 90% / 24.8x | 95% / 27.9x | 99% / 31.0x | 101% / 32.6x | 103% / 34.1x |
| 12.0x | 86% / 22.4x | 91% / 25.3x | 95% / 28.2x | 97% / 29.6x | 99% / 31.0x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 75% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 1.7x, adding 6.8 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $136K | — | $136K | 1.3% |
| Year 1 | $140K | +$374K | $514K | 4.9% |
| Year 2 | $145K | +$560K | $705K | 6.7% |
| Year 3 | $149K | +$560K | $709K | 6.7% |
| Year 4 | $153K | +$560K | $714K | 6.8% |
| Year 5 | $158K | +$560K | $718K | 6.8% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate Reductio | $106K | $159K | $211K | $254K |
| Cost to Collect | $106K | $158K | $211K | $253K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $64K | $96K | $128K | $154K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $5K | $7K | $10K | $12K |
| Total | $280K | $420K | $560K | $673K |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 97 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 1.3% | -11.1% | -1.7% | 12.0% | P55 |
| Net-to-Gross | 15.5% | 29.1% | 38.1% | 47.4% | P3 |
| Occupancy | 44.8% | 26.1% | 37.5% | 63.7% | P55 |
| Rev/Bed | $352K | $422K | $1.1M | $2.1M | P20 |
| Exp/Bed | $347K | $391K | $979K | $2.1M | P19 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.