Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 68% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Revenue per Bed, Bed Count. Risks: Occupancy Rate. Risk-adjusted uplift: $2.0M (vs $2.9M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $1.1M | $1.1M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $1.1M | $31K | $1.1M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $171K | $506K | $677K | $2.1M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $36K | $36K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 44.8% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $278K | $556K | $834K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $275K | $550K | $826K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $226K | $451K | $677K | $677K | $677K | $677K | $677K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $18K | $36K | $36K | $36K | $36K | $36K | $36K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $797K | $1.6M | $2.4M | $2.9M | $2.9M | $2.9M | $2.9M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $2.9M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 44% / 6.2x | 49% / 7.2x | 53% / 8.3x | 55% / 8.8x | 56% / 9.3x |
| 9.0x | 39% / 5.2x | 44% / 6.1x | 48% / 7.0x | 50% / 7.5x | 51% / 8.0x |
| 10.0x | 34% / 4.3x | 39% / 5.2x | 43% / 6.0x | 45% / 6.4x | 47% / 6.8x |
| 11.0x | 29% / 3.6x | 34% / 4.4x | 39% / 5.2x | 41% / 5.5x | 43% / 5.9x |
| 12.0x | 25% / 3.0x | 30% / 3.8x | 35% / 4.5x | 37% / 4.8x | 39% / 5.2x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline -15% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 7.5x, adding 1.0 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $22.0M | — | $22.0M | 39.5% |
| Year 1 | $22.6M | +$2.0M | $24.6M | 44.2% |
| Year 2 | $23.3M | +$2.9M | $26.2M | 47.2% |
| Year 3 | $24.0M | +$2.9M | $26.9M | 48.4% |
| Year 4 | $24.7M | +$2.9M | $27.6M | 49.7% |
| Year 5 | $25.5M | +$2.9M | $28.4M | 51.1% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $556K | $834K | $1.1M | $1.3M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $550K | $826K | $1.1M | $1.3M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $338K | $507K | $677K | $812K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $18K | $27K | $36K | $43K |
| Total | $1.5M | $2.2M | $2.9M | $3.5M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 24 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 39.5% | -15.5% | -3.3% | 19.1% | P92 |
| Net-to-Gross | 27.2% | 27.7% | 31.8% | 44.8% | P21 |
| Occupancy | 24.1% | 20.7% | 35.3% | 45.1% | P29 |
| Rev/Bed | $4.6M | $321K | $1.5M | $2.3M | P92 |
| Exp/Bed | $2.8M | $444K | $1.3M | $2.4M | P83 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.