Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 72% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate. Risks: Commercial Payer %. Risk-adjusted uplift: $10.9M (vs $15.2M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $5.8M | $5.8M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $5.5M | $159K | $5.7M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $885K | $2.6M | $3.5M | $11.1M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $184K | $184K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 31.1% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $1.4M | $2.9M | $4.3M | $5.8M | $5.8M | $5.8M | $5.8M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $1.4M | $2.9M | $4.3M | $5.7M | $5.7M | $5.7M | $5.7M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $1.2M | $2.3M | $3.5M | $3.5M | $3.5M | $3.5M | $3.5M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $92K | $184K | $184K | $184K | $184K | $184K | $184K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $4.1M | $8.3M | $12.3M | $15.2M | $15.2M | $15.2M | $15.2M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $15.2M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 162% / 122.9x | 167% / 136.9x | 173% / 150.9x | 175% / 158.0x | 178% / 165.0x |
| 9.0x | 156% / 108.9x | 161% / 121.4x | 166% / 133.8x | 169% / 140.1x | 171% / 146.3x |
| 10.0x | 150% / 97.7x | 156% / 108.9x | 161% / 120.1x | 163% / 125.7x | 165% / 131.3x |
| 11.0x | 145% / 88.5x | 151% / 98.7x | 156% / 108.9x | 158% / 114.0x | 160% / 119.1x |
| 12.0x | 141% / 80.9x | 146% / 90.2x | 151% / 99.5x | 153% / 104.2x | 156% / 108.9x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 92% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 0.5x, adding 8.0 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $942K | — | $942K | 0.3% |
| Year 1 | $971K | +$10.1M | $11.1M | 3.8% |
| Year 2 | $1000K | +$15.2M | $16.2M | 5.6% |
| Year 3 | $1.0M | +$15.2M | $16.2M | 5.6% |
| Year 4 | $1.1M | +$15.2M | $16.2M | 5.6% |
| Year 5 | $1.1M | +$15.2M | $16.3M | 5.6% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $2.9M | $4.3M | $5.8M | $6.9M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $2.9M | $4.3M | $5.7M | $6.8M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $1.8M | $2.6M | $3.5M | $4.2M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $92K | $138K | $184K | $221K |
| Total | $7.6M | $11.4M | $15.2M | $18.2M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 77 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 0.3% | -6.6% | 1.4% | 7.3% | P46 |
| Net-to-Gross | 19.8% | 21.3% | 26.7% | 31.1% | P12 |
| Occupancy | 76.4% | 50.1% | 57.2% | 72.8% | P78 |
| Rev/Bed | $1.4M | $993K | $1.4M | $1.8M | P57 |
| Exp/Bed | $1.4M | $911K | $1.4M | $1.8M | P61 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.