Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 72% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Revenue per Bed. Risks: Bed Count, Commercial Payer %. Risk-adjusted uplift: $33.1M (vs $45.8M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $17.4M | $17.4M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $16.8M | $479K | $17.2M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $2.7M | $7.9M | $10.6M | $33.4M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $557K | $557K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 32.6% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $4.4M | $8.7M | $13.1M | $17.4M | $17.4M | $17.4M | $17.4M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $4.3M | $8.6M | $12.9M | $17.2M | $17.2M | $17.2M | $17.2M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $3.5M | $7.1M | $10.6M | $10.6M | $10.6M | $10.6M | $10.6M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $279K | $557K | $557K | $557K | $557K | $557K | $557K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $12.5M | $25.0M | $37.1M | $45.8M | $45.8M | $45.8M | $45.8M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $45.8M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 74% / 16.1x | 79% / 18.2x | 83% / 20.4x | 85% / 21.4x | 86% / 22.5x |
| 9.0x | 69% / 13.9x | 74% / 15.8x | 78% / 17.8x | 80% / 18.7x | 81% / 19.7x |
| 10.0x | 65% / 12.2x | 69% / 13.9x | 73% / 15.7x | 75% / 16.5x | 77% / 17.4x |
| 11.0x | 61% / 10.8x | 65% / 12.4x | 69% / 13.9x | 71% / 14.7x | 73% / 15.5x |
| 12.0x | 57% / 9.6x | 62% / 11.1x | 66% / 12.5x | 68% / 13.2x | 69% / 13.9x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 48% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 3.4x, adding 5.1 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $30.9M | — | $30.9M | 3.5% |
| Year 1 | $31.8M | +$30.5M | $62.3M | 7.2% |
| Year 2 | $32.7M | +$45.8M | $78.6M | 9.0% |
| Year 3 | $33.7M | +$45.8M | $79.5M | 9.1% |
| Year 4 | $34.7M | +$45.8M | $80.6M | 9.2% |
| Year 5 | $35.8M | +$45.8M | $81.6M | 9.4% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $8.7M | $13.1M | $17.4M | $20.9M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $8.6M | $12.9M | $17.2M | $20.7M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $5.3M | $7.9M | $10.6M | $12.7M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $279K | $418K | $557K | $669K |
| Total | $22.9M | $34.4M | $45.8M | $55.0M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 48 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 3.5% | -7.7% | -0.3% | 3.5% | P73 |
| Net-to-Gross | 32.8% | 21.4% | 27.7% | 32.6% | P78 |
| Occupancy | 79.2% | 56.4% | 65.0% | 76.1% | P85 |
| Rev/Bed | $2.4M | $1.3M | $1.7M | $2.3M | P80 |
| Exp/Bed | $2.3M | $1.3M | $1.7M | $2.2M | P77 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.