Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 71% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Revenue per Bed. Risks: Bed Count. Risk-adjusted uplift: $49.3M (vs $69.5M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $26.4M | $26.4M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $25.4M | $727K | $26.2M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $4.1M | $12.0M | $16.1M | $50.7M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $845K | $845K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 41.9% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $6.6M | $13.2M | $19.8M | $26.4M | $26.4M | $26.4M | $26.4M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $6.5M | $13.1M | $19.6M | $26.2M | $26.2M | $26.2M | $26.2M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $5.4M | $10.7M | $16.1M | $16.1M | $16.1M | $16.1M | $16.1M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $423K | $845K | $845K | $845K | $845K | $845K | $845K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $18.9M | $37.9M | $56.4M | $69.5M | $69.5M | $69.5M | $69.5M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $69.5M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss |
| 9.0x | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss |
| 10.0x | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss |
| 11.0x | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss |
| 12.0x | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 0% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 99.0x to 99.0x, adding 0.0 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $-463.5M | — | $-463.5M | -35.1% |
| Year 1 | $-477.4M | +$46.3M | $-431.1M | -32.6% |
| Year 2 | $-491.7M | +$69.5M | $-422.2M | -32.0% |
| Year 3 | $-506.5M | +$69.5M | $-437.0M | -33.1% |
| Year 4 | $-521.7M | +$69.5M | $-452.2M | -34.2% |
| Year 5 | $-537.3M | +$69.5M | $-467.8M | -35.4% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $13.2M | $19.8M | $26.4M | $31.7M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $13.1M | $19.6M | $26.2M | $31.4M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $8.0M | $12.1M | $16.1M | $19.3M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $423K | $634K | $845K | $1.0M |
| Total | $34.7M | $52.1M | $69.5M | $83.4M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 68 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | -35.1% | -23.1% | -17.5% | -9.4% | P10 |
| Net-to-Gross | 28.6% | 25.4% | 32.6% | 41.9% | P40 |
| Occupancy | 69.0% | 68.3% | 79.4% | 87.7% | P28 |
| Rev/Bed | $3.2M | $1.3M | $1.8M | $2.3M | P95 |
| Exp/Bed | $4.3M | $1.4M | $1.9M | $2.6M | P96 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.