Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 70% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Revenue per Bed. Risks: Bed Count. Risk-adjusted uplift: $62.8M (vs $89.4M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $34.0M | $34.0M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $32.7M | $935K | $33.6M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $5.2M | $15.5M | $20.7M | $65.2M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $1.1M | $1.1M | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 28.9% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $8.5M | $17.0M | $25.5M | $34.0M | $34.0M | $34.0M | $34.0M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $8.4M | $16.8M | $25.2M | $33.6M | $33.6M | $33.6M | $33.6M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $6.9M | $13.8M | $20.7M | $20.7M | $20.7M | $20.7M | $20.7M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $544K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
| Cumulative | $0 | $24.3M | $48.7M | $72.5M | $89.4M | $89.4M | $89.4M | $89.4M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $89.4M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 55% / 9.0x | 60% / 10.3x | 64% / 11.7x | 65% / 12.4x | 67% / 13.1x |
| 9.0x | 50% / 7.6x | 55% / 8.8x | 59% / 10.0x | 60% / 10.6x | 62% / 11.2x |
| 10.0x | 46% / 6.5x | 50% / 7.6x | 54% / 8.7x | 56% / 9.2x | 58% / 9.8x |
| 11.0x | 41% / 5.6x | 46% / 6.6x | 50% / 7.6x | 52% / 8.1x | 54% / 8.6x |
| 12.0x | 37% / 4.9x | 42% / 5.8x | 46% / 6.7x | 48% / 7.2x | 50% / 7.6x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 14% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 5.6x, adding 2.9 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $174.5M | — | $174.5M | 10.3% |
| Year 1 | $179.8M | +$59.6M | $239.4M | 14.1% |
| Year 2 | $185.2M | +$89.4M | $274.6M | 16.2% |
| Year 3 | $190.7M | +$89.4M | $280.1M | 16.5% |
| Year 4 | $196.4M | +$89.4M | $285.8M | 16.8% |
| Year 5 | $202.3M | +$89.4M | $291.7M | 17.2% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $17.0M | $25.5M | $34.0M | $40.8M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $16.8M | $25.2M | $33.6M | $40.4M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $10.3M | $15.5M | $20.7M | $24.8M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $544K | $816K | $1.1M | $1.3M |
| Total | $44.7M | $67.0M | $89.4M | $107.3M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 18 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 10.3% | -13.2% | -4.2% | 5.9% | P89 |
| Net-to-Gross | 21.7% | 20.6% | 23.1% | 28.9% | P33 |
| Occupancy | 82.5% | 65.3% | 76.2% | 82.0% | P72 |
| Rev/Bed | $2.4M | $1.2M | $1.8M | $2.2M | P78 |
| Exp/Bed | $2.2M | $1.4M | $1.8M | $2.1M | P72 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.