Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 72% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Net-to-Gross Ratio. Risks: Bed Count. Risk-adjusted uplift: $15.0M (vs $20.9M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $8.0M | $8.0M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $7.7M | $219K | $7.9M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $1.2M | $3.6M | $4.8M | $15.3M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $255K | $255K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 22.6% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $2.0M | $4.0M | $6.0M | $8.0M | $8.0M | $8.0M | $8.0M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $2.0M | $3.9M | $5.9M | $7.9M | $7.9M | $7.9M | $7.9M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $1.6M | $3.2M | $4.8M | $4.8M | $4.8M | $4.8M | $4.8M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $127K | $255K | $255K | $255K | $255K | $255K | $255K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $5.7M | $11.4M | $17.0M | $20.9M | $20.9M | $20.9M | $20.9M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $20.9M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 58% / 9.8x | 62% / 11.2x | 66% / 12.7x | 68% / 13.4x | 70% / 14.1x |
| 9.0x | 53% / 8.3x | 57% / 9.6x | 61% / 10.9x | 63% / 11.6x | 65% / 12.2x |
| 10.0x | 48% / 7.2x | 53% / 8.3x | 57% / 9.5x | 59% / 10.1x | 61% / 10.7x |
| 11.0x | 44% / 6.2x | 49% / 7.3x | 53% / 8.3x | 55% / 8.9x | 57% / 9.4x |
| 12.0x | 40% / 5.4x | 45% / 6.4x | 49% / 7.4x | 51% / 7.9x | 53% / 8.3x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 20% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 5.2x, adding 3.2 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $33.6M | — | $33.6M | 8.4% |
| Year 1 | $34.6M | +$14.0M | $48.5M | 12.2% |
| Year 2 | $35.6M | +$20.9M | $56.5M | 14.2% |
| Year 3 | $36.7M | +$20.9M | $57.6M | 14.5% |
| Year 4 | $37.8M | +$20.9M | $58.7M | 14.8% |
| Year 5 | $38.9M | +$20.9M | $59.8M | 15.0% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $4.0M | $6.0M | $8.0M | $9.5M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $3.9M | $5.9M | $7.9M | $9.5M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $2.4M | $3.6M | $4.8M | $5.8M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $127K | $191K | $255K | $305K |
| Total | $10.5M | $15.7M | $20.9M | $25.1M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 18 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 8.4% | -20.9% | 1.5% | 10.1% | P61 |
| Net-to-Gross | 8.9% | 8.6% | 11.4% | 22.6% | P28 |
| Occupancy | 77.5% | 68.9% | 77.3% | 82.7% | P50 |
| Rev/Bed | $1.3M | $642K | $1.0M | $1.5M | P67 |
| Exp/Bed | $1.2M | $695K | $966K | $1.4M | P61 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.