Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 73% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Net-to-Gross Ratio. Risks: Bed Count. Risk-adjusted uplift: $19.0M (vs $26.1M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $9.9M | $9.9M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $9.5M | $273K | $9.8M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $1.5M | $4.5M | $6.0M | $19.0M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $317K | $317K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 20.3% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $2.5M | $5.0M | $7.4M | $9.9M | $9.9M | $9.9M | $9.9M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $2.5M | $4.9M | $7.4M | $9.8M | $9.8M | $9.8M | $9.8M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $2.0M | $4.0M | $6.0M | $6.0M | $6.0M | $6.0M | $6.0M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $159K | $317K | $317K | $317K | $317K | $317K | $317K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $7.1M | $14.2M | $21.2M | $26.1M | $26.1M | $26.1M | $26.1M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $26.1M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 9.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 10.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 11.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 12.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 379% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 99.0x to -18.1x, adding 117.1 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $-17.8M | — | $-17.8M | -3.6% |
| Year 1 | $-18.3M | +$17.4M | $-921K | -0.2% |
| Year 2 | $-18.9M | +$26.1M | $7.2M | 1.5% |
| Year 3 | $-19.4M | +$26.1M | $6.7M | 1.3% |
| Year 4 | $-20.0M | +$26.1M | $6.1M | 1.2% |
| Year 5 | $-20.6M | +$26.1M | $5.5M | 1.1% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $5.0M | $7.4M | $9.9M | $11.9M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $4.9M | $7.4M | $9.8M | $11.8M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $3.0M | $4.5M | $6.0M | $7.2M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $159K | $238K | $317K | $381K |
| Total | $13.0M | $19.6M | $26.1M | $31.3M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 16 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | -3.6% | -9.4% | 3.0% | 10.6% | P25 |
| Net-to-Gross | 12.1% | 8.5% | 11.1% | 20.3% | P50 |
| Occupancy | 82.9% | 74.2% | 77.8% | 83.2% | P69 |
| Rev/Bed | $1.5M | $836K | $1.1M | $1.5M | P69 |
| Exp/Bed | $1.6M | $853K | $1.0M | $1.4M | P81 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.