Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 71% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate. Risks: Bed Count. Risk-adjusted uplift: $23.4M (vs $32.9M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $12.5M | $12.5M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $12.0M | $344K | $12.4M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $1.9M | $5.7M | $7.6M | $24.0M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $400K | $400K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 32.8% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $3.1M | $6.3M | $9.4M | $12.5M | $12.5M | $12.5M | $12.5M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $3.1M | $6.2M | $9.3M | $12.4M | $12.4M | $12.4M | $12.4M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $2.5M | $5.1M | $7.6M | $7.6M | $7.6M | $7.6M | $7.6M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $200K | $400K | $400K | $400K | $400K | $400K | $400K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $9.0M | $17.9M | $26.7M | $32.9M | $32.9M | $32.9M | $32.9M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $32.9M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 9.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 10.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 11.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 12.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 117% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 99.0x to -1.1x, adding 100.1 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $-3.8M | — | $-3.8M | -0.6% |
| Year 1 | $-3.9M | +$21.9M | $18.0M | 2.9% |
| Year 2 | $-4.0M | +$32.9M | $28.9M | 4.6% |
| Year 3 | $-4.1M | +$32.9M | $28.8M | 4.6% |
| Year 4 | $-4.3M | +$32.9M | $28.7M | 4.6% |
| Year 5 | $-4.4M | +$32.9M | $28.5M | 4.6% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $6.3M | $9.4M | $12.5M | $15.0M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $6.2M | $9.3M | $12.4M | $14.9M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $3.8M | $5.7M | $7.6M | $9.1M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $200K | $300K | $400K | $480K |
| Total | $16.5M | $24.7M | $32.9M | $39.5M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 1321 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | -0.6% | -13.3% | -3.8% | 5.2% | P60 |
| Net-to-Gross | 39.7% | 18.6% | 25.2% | 32.8% | P85 |
| Occupancy | 78.7% | 58.2% | 70.1% | 78.3% | P76 |
| Rev/Bed | $1.8M | $1.1M | $1.5M | $2.0M | P64 |
| Exp/Bed | $1.8M | $1.1M | $1.5M | $2.1M | P62 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.