Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 60% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Commercial Payer %, Bed Count. Risks: Occupancy Rate, Revenue per Bed. Risk-adjusted uplift: $0.4M (vs $0.7M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $254K | $254K | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $245K | $8K | $253K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $39K | $116K | $155K | $487K | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $10K | $10K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 88.1% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $64K | $127K | $191K | $254K | $254K | $254K | $254K |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $63K | $126K | $190K | $253K | $253K | $253K | $253K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $52K | $103K | $155K | $155K | $155K | $155K | $155K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $5K | $10K | $10K | $10K | $10K | $10K | $10K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $183K | $366K | $544K | $671K | $671K | $671K | $671K |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $671K is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 68% / 13.3x | 72% / 15.1x | 76% / 16.9x | 78% / 17.8x | 80% / 18.8x |
| 9.0x | 63% / 11.4x | 67% / 13.1x | 71% / 14.7x | 73% / 15.5x | 75% / 16.3x |
| 10.0x | 58% / 10.0x | 63% / 11.4x | 67% / 12.9x | 69% / 13.6x | 70% / 14.4x |
| 11.0x | 54% / 8.8x | 59% / 10.1x | 63% / 11.4x | 65% / 12.1x | 66% / 12.8x |
| 12.0x | 51% / 7.8x | 55% / 9.0x | 59% / 10.2x | 61% / 10.8x | 63% / 11.4x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 38% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 4.0x, adding 4.4 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $611K | — | $611K | 4.8% |
| Year 1 | $629K | +$447K | $1.1M | 8.5% |
| Year 2 | $648K | +$671K | $1.3M | 10.4% |
| Year 3 | $668K | +$671K | $1.3M | 10.5% |
| Year 4 | $688K | +$671K | $1.4M | 10.7% |
| Year 5 | $708K | +$671K | $1.4M | 10.9% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $127K | $191K | $254K | $305K |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $126K | $190K | $253K | $303K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $77K | $116K | $155K | $185K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $5K | $7K | $10K | $12K |
| Total | $335K | $503K | $671K | $805K |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 50 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 4.8% | -21.4% | -9.3% | -1.5% | P85 |
| Net-to-Gross | 63.8% | 63.6% | 73.2% | 88.1% | P25 |
| Occupancy | 11.6% | 23.2% | 54.1% | 72.7% | P10 |
| Rev/Bed | $635K | $373K | $734K | $1.9M | P44 |
| Exp/Bed | $605K | $423K | $957K | $2.2M | P42 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.