Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 71% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Revenue per Bed, Occupancy Rate. Risks: Net-to-Gross Ratio. Risk-adjusted uplift: $1.5M (vs $2.1M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $814K | $814K | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $783K | $22K | $806K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $125K | $370K | $495K | $1.6M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $26K | $26K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 64.2% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $203K | $407K | $610K | $814K | $814K | $814K | $814K |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $201K | $403K | $604K | $806K | $806K | $806K | $806K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $165K | $330K | $495K | $495K | $495K | $495K | $495K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $13K | $26K | $26K | $26K | $26K | $26K | $26K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $583K | $1.2M | $1.7M | $2.1M | $2.1M | $2.1M | $2.1M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $2.1M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 65% / 12.3x | 70% / 14.0x | 74% / 15.7x | 75% / 16.6x | 77% / 17.5x |
| 9.0x | 60% / 10.6x | 65% / 12.1x | 69% / 13.6x | 70% / 14.4x | 72% / 15.2x |
| 10.0x | 56% / 9.2x | 60% / 10.6x | 64% / 11.9x | 66% / 12.6x | 68% / 13.3x |
| 11.0x | 52% / 8.1x | 56% / 9.3x | 60% / 10.6x | 62% / 11.2x | 64% / 11.8x |
| 12.0x | 48% / 7.1x | 53% / 8.3x | 57% / 9.4x | 58% / 10.0x | 60% / 10.6x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 34% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 4.3x, adding 4.2 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $2.2M | — | $2.2M | 5.5% |
| Year 1 | $2.3M | +$1.4M | $3.7M | 9.1% |
| Year 2 | $2.4M | +$2.1M | $4.5M | 11.0% |
| Year 3 | $2.4M | +$2.1M | $4.6M | 11.2% |
| Year 4 | $2.5M | +$2.1M | $4.6M | 11.4% |
| Year 5 | $2.6M | +$2.1M | $4.7M | 11.6% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $407K | $610K | $814K | $977K |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $403K | $604K | $806K | $967K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $248K | $371K | $495K | $594K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $13K | $20K | $26K | $31K |
| Total | $1.1M | $1.6M | $2.1M | $2.6M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 87 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 5.5% | -12.6% | -3.0% | 3.0% | P82 |
| Net-to-Gross | 60.4% | 52.1% | 59.5% | 64.2% | P54 |
| Occupancy | 57.3% | 15.6% | 30.7% | 41.6% | P87 |
| Rev/Bed | $2.7M | $1.1M | $1.8M | $2.7M | P74 |
| Exp/Bed | $2.6M | $993K | $1.7M | $2.7M | P72 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.