Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 62% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Bed Count, Revenue per Bed. Risks: Occupancy Rate, Net-to-Gross Ratio. Risk-adjusted uplift: $1.1M (vs $1.8M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $679K | $679K | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $654K | $19K | $673K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $104K | $309K | $413K | $1.3M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $22K | $22K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 61.4% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $170K | $340K | $509K | $679K | $679K | $679K | $679K |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $168K | $336K | $504K | $673K | $673K | $673K | $673K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $138K | $276K | $413K | $413K | $413K | $413K | $413K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $11K | $22K | $22K | $22K | $22K | $22K | $22K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $487K | $973K | $1.4M | $1.8M | $1.8M | $1.8M | $1.8M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $1.8M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 42% / 5.8x | 47% / 6.8x | 51% / 7.8x | 53% / 8.3x | 55% / 8.8x |
| 9.0x | 37% / 4.8x | 42% / 5.7x | 46% / 6.6x | 48% / 7.1x | 50% / 7.5x |
| 10.0x | 32% / 4.0x | 37% / 4.8x | 41% / 5.6x | 43% / 6.0x | 45% / 6.4x |
| 11.0x | 27% / 3.4x | 33% / 4.1x | 37% / 4.8x | 39% / 5.2x | 41% / 5.5x |
| 12.0x | 23% / 2.8x | 28% / 3.5x | 33% / 4.2x | 35% / 4.5x | 37% / 4.8x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline -20% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 7.8x, adding 0.6 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $21.9M | — | $21.9M | 64.5% |
| Year 1 | $22.6M | +$1.2M | $23.7M | 69.9% |
| Year 2 | $23.2M | +$1.8M | $25.0M | 73.7% |
| Year 3 | $23.9M | +$1.8M | $25.7M | 75.7% |
| Year 4 | $24.6M | +$1.8M | $26.4M | 77.8% |
| Year 5 | $25.4M | +$1.8M | $27.2M | 80.0% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $340K | $509K | $679K | $815K |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $336K | $504K | $673K | $807K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $207K | $310K | $413K | $496K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $11K | $16K | $22K | $26K |
| Total | $893K | $1.3M | $1.8M | $2.1M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 89 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 64.5% | -13.9% | -1.7% | 8.4% | P99 |
| Net-to-Gross | 84.3% | 34.2% | 48.6% | 61.4% | P92 |
| Occupancy | 20.0% | 20.5% | 45.1% | 65.4% | P23 |
| Rev/Bed | $2.3M | $335K | $658K | $1.1M | P87 |
| Exp/Bed | $804K | $295K | $602K | $1.2M | P56 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.