Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 72% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Bed Count. Risks: Revenue per Bed. Risk-adjusted uplift: $0.5M (vs $0.7M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $257K | $257K | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $247K | $8K | $256K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $39K | $117K | $156K | $493K | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $10K | $10K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 41.2% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $64K | $128K | $193K | $257K | $257K | $257K | $257K |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $64K | $128K | $192K | $256K | $256K | $256K | $256K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $52K | $104K | $156K | $156K | $156K | $156K | $156K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $5K | $10K | $10K | $10K | $10K | $10K | $10K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $185K | $370K | $550K | $679K | $679K | $679K | $679K |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $679K is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 91% / 25.4x | 95% / 28.5x | 100% / 31.7x | 102% / 33.3x | 103% / 34.9x |
| 9.0x | 86% / 22.2x | 90% / 25.0x | 94% / 27.8x | 96% / 29.2x | 98% / 30.6x |
| 10.0x | 81% / 19.6x | 86% / 22.2x | 90% / 24.7x | 92% / 26.0x | 94% / 27.2x |
| 11.0x | 77% / 17.6x | 82% / 19.9x | 86% / 22.2x | 88% / 23.3x | 90% / 24.5x |
| 12.0x | 74% / 15.8x | 78% / 17.9x | 82% / 20.1x | 84% / 21.1x | 86% / 22.2x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 65% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 2.3x, adding 6.2 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $247K | — | $247K | 1.9% |
| Year 1 | $254K | +$452K | $706K | 5.5% |
| Year 2 | $262K | +$679K | $940K | 7.3% |
| Year 3 | $270K | +$679K | $948K | 7.4% |
| Year 4 | $278K | +$679K | $956K | 7.4% |
| Year 5 | $286K | +$679K | $965K | 7.5% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $128K | $193K | $257K | $308K |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $128K | $192K | $256K | $307K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $78K | $117K | $156K | $188K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $5K | $7K | $10K | $12K |
| Total | $339K | $509K | $679K | $814K |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 48 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 1.9% | -10.7% | -0.8% | 7.6% | P56 |
| Net-to-Gross | 35.1% | 27.6% | 34.2% | 41.2% | P50 |
| Occupancy | 77.3% | 29.1% | 36.8% | 52.8% | P92 |
| Rev/Bed | $559K | $667K | $911K | $1.4M | P17 |
| Exp/Bed | $548K | $735K | $1.1M | $1.2M | P17 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.