Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 60% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Commercial Payer %, Bed Count. Risks: Occupancy Rate, Revenue per Bed. Risk-adjusted uplift: $0.3M (vs $0.4M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $156K | $8K | $164K | $0 | 12mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $162K | $162K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $25K | $74K | $98K | $310K | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $10K | $10K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 83.2% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $41K | $82K | $123K | $164K | $164K | $164K | $164K |
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $40K | $81K | $121K | $162K | $162K | $162K | $162K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $33K | $66K | $98K | $98K | $98K | $98K | $98K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $5K | $10K | $10K | $10K | $10K | $10K | $10K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $119K | $238K | $352K | $433K | $433K | $433K | $433K |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $433K is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss |
| 9.0x | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss |
| 10.0x | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss |
| 11.0x | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss |
| 12.0x | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss | Loss |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 0% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 99.0x to 99.0x, adding 0.0 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $-3.3M | — | $-3.3M | -41.1% |
| Year 1 | $-3.4M | +$289K | $-3.1M | -38.8% |
| Year 2 | $-3.5M | +$433K | $-3.1M | -38.3% |
| Year 3 | $-3.6M | +$433K | $-3.2M | -39.6% |
| Year 4 | $-3.7M | +$433K | $-3.3M | -40.9% |
| Year 5 | $-3.9M | +$433K | $-3.4M | -42.3% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate Reductio | $82K | $123K | $164K | $197K |
| Cost to Collect | $81K | $121K | $162K | $194K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $49K | $74K | $98K | $118K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $5K | $7K | $10K | $12K |
| Total | $217K | $325K | $433K | $520K |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 105 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | -41.1% | -31.3% | -20.7% | -11.7% | P12 |
| Net-to-Gross | 81.5% | 50.5% | 61.3% | 83.2% | P70 |
| Occupancy | 15.7% | 18.1% | 27.0% | 39.4% | P16 |
| Rev/Bed | $449K | $460K | $731K | $1.3M | P23 |
| Exp/Bed | $634K | $583K | $932K | $1.4M | P30 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.