Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 68% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Revenue per Bed, Bed Count. Risks: Occupancy Rate, Commercial Payer %. Risk-adjusted uplift: $2.6M (vs $3.8M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $1.4M | $1.4M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $1.4M | $39K | $1.4M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $219K | $650K | $869K | $2.7M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $46K | $46K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 47.9% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $357K | $714K | $1.1M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.4M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $354K | $707K | $1.1M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.4M | $1.4M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $290K | $580K | $869K | $869K | $869K | $869K | $869K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $23K | $46K | $46K | $46K | $46K | $46K | $46K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $1.0M | $2.0M | $3.0M | $3.8M | $3.8M | $3.8M | $3.8M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $3.8M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 95% / 28.5x | 100% / 32.0x | 104% / 35.5x | 106% / 37.3x | 108% / 39.0x |
| 9.0x | 90% / 24.9x | 95% / 28.1x | 99% / 31.2x | 101% / 32.8x | 103% / 34.3x |
| 10.0x | 86% / 22.1x | 90% / 24.9x | 94% / 27.8x | 96% / 29.2x | 98% / 30.6x |
| 11.0x | 82% / 19.8x | 86% / 22.4x | 90% / 24.9x | 92% / 26.2x | 94% / 27.5x |
| 12.0x | 78% / 17.9x | 82% / 20.2x | 87% / 22.6x | 88% / 23.8x | 90% / 24.9x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 69% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 2.0x, adding 6.4 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $1.2M | — | $1.2M | 1.7% |
| Year 1 | $1.2M | +$2.5M | $3.7M | 5.2% |
| Year 2 | $1.3M | +$3.8M | $5.0M | 7.0% |
| Year 3 | $1.3M | +$3.8M | $5.1M | 7.1% |
| Year 4 | $1.3M | +$3.8M | $5.1M | 7.1% |
| Year 5 | $1.4M | +$3.8M | $5.1M | 7.2% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $714K | $1.1M | $1.4M | $1.7M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $707K | $1.1M | $1.4M | $1.7M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $435K | $652K | $869K | $1.0M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $23K | $34K | $46K | $55K |
| Total | $1.9M | $2.8M | $3.8M | $4.5M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 96 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 1.7% | -16.3% | -5.2% | 6.3% | P67 |
| Net-to-Gross | 27.4% | 29.0% | 33.0% | 47.9% | P19 |
| Occupancy | 45.2% | 26.3% | 40.0% | 58.8% | P57 |
| Rev/Bed | $2.3M | $548K | $1.4M | $2.0M | P80 |
| Exp/Bed | $2.3M | $485K | $1.5M | $2.3M | P74 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.