Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 71% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Commercial Payer %. Risks: Revenue per Bed, Net-to-Gross Ratio. Risk-adjusted uplift: $1.4M (vs $2.0M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $753K | $753K | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $725K | $21K | $745K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $116K | $343K | $458K | $1.4M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $24K | $24K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 37.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $188K | $376K | $565K | $753K | $753K | $753K | $753K |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $186K | $373K | $559K | $745K | $745K | $745K | $745K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $153K | $305K | $458K | $458K | $458K | $458K | $458K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $12K | $24K | $24K | $24K | $24K | $24K | $24K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $539K | $1.1M | $1.6M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M | $2.0M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $2.0M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 47% / 6.9x | 52% / 8.1x | 56% / 9.2x | 58% / 9.8x | 60% / 10.3x |
| 9.0x | 42% / 5.8x | 47% / 6.8x | 51% / 7.8x | 53% / 8.3x | 55% / 8.8x |
| 10.0x | 37% / 4.9x | 42% / 5.8x | 46% / 6.7x | 48% / 7.2x | 50% / 7.6x |
| 11.0x | 33% / 4.2x | 38% / 5.0x | 42% / 5.8x | 44% / 6.2x | 46% / 6.6x |
| 12.0x | 29% / 3.5x | 34% / 4.3x | 38% / 5.1x | 40% / 5.4x | 42% / 5.8x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline -5% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 6.9x, adding 1.6 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $8.5M | — | $8.5M | 22.5% |
| Year 1 | $8.7M | +$1.3M | $10.0M | 26.6% |
| Year 2 | $9.0M | +$2.0M | $11.0M | 29.1% |
| Year 3 | $9.2M | +$2.0M | $11.2M | 29.8% |
| Year 4 | $9.5M | +$2.0M | $11.5M | 30.5% |
| Year 5 | $9.8M | +$2.0M | $11.8M | 31.3% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $376K | $565K | $753K | $904K |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $373K | $559K | $745K | $895K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $229K | $344K | $458K | $550K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $12K | $18K | $24K | $29K |
| Total | $990K | $1.5M | $2.0M | $2.4M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 121 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 22.5% | -8.5% | 3.2% | 12.7% | P90 |
| Net-to-Gross | 68.9% | 14.0% | 20.6% | 37.5% | P91 |
| Occupancy | 73.6% | 49.2% | 63.5% | 77.4% | P68 |
| Rev/Bed | $418K | $310K | $583K | $1.2M | P32 |
| Exp/Bed | $324K | $345K | $626K | $1.1M | P23 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.