Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 82% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Revenue per Bed, Occupancy Rate. Risks: Bed Count. Risk-adjusted uplift: $82.7M (vs $100.5M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $38.2M | $38.2M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $36.8M | $1.1M | $37.8M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $5.9M | $17.4M | $23.2M | $73.3M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $1.2M | $1.2M | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 21.2% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $9.6M | $19.1M | $28.7M | $38.2M | $38.2M | $38.2M | $38.2M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $9.5M | $18.9M | $28.4M | $37.8M | $37.8M | $37.8M | $37.8M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $7.7M | $15.5M | $23.2M | $23.2M | $23.2M | $23.2M | $23.2M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $611K | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M |
| Cumulative | $0 | $27.4M | $54.7M | $81.5M | $100.5M | $100.5M | $100.5M | $100.5M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $100.5M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 50% / 7.6x | 55% / 8.8x | 59% / 10.1x | 61% / 10.7x | 62% / 11.3x |
| 9.0x | 45% / 6.4x | 50% / 7.5x | 54% / 8.6x | 56% / 9.1x | 57% / 9.7x |
| 10.0x | 40% / 5.5x | 45% / 6.4x | 49% / 7.4x | 51% / 7.9x | 53% / 8.4x |
| 11.0x | 36% / 4.7x | 41% / 5.5x | 45% / 6.4x | 47% / 6.9x | 49% / 7.3x |
| 12.0x | 32% / 4.0x | 37% / 4.8x | 41% / 5.6x | 43% / 6.0x | 45% / 6.4x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 2% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 6.4x, adding 2.1 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $305.5M | — | $305.5M | 16.0% |
| Year 1 | $314.7M | +$67.0M | $381.6M | 20.0% |
| Year 2 | $324.1M | +$100.5M | $424.6M | 22.2% |
| Year 3 | $333.8M | +$100.5M | $434.3M | 22.7% |
| Year 4 | $343.8M | +$100.5M | $444.3M | 23.3% |
| Year 5 | $354.1M | +$100.5M | $454.6M | 23.8% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $19.1M | $28.7M | $38.2M | $45.8M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $18.9M | $28.4M | $37.8M | $45.4M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $11.6M | $17.4M | $23.2M | $27.9M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $611K | $917K | $1.2M | $1.5M |
| Total | $50.2M | $75.4M | $100.5M | $120.6M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 123 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 16.0% | -5.2% | 3.9% | 17.2% | P72 |
| Net-to-Gross | 27.9% | 10.1% | 14.6% | 21.2% | P85 |
| Occupancy | 83.5% | 53.1% | 64.3% | 75.2% | P89 |
| Rev/Bed | $8.8M | $745K | $1.1M | $1.3M | P99 |
| Exp/Bed | $7.4M | $714K | $944K | $1.2M | P99 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.