Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 65% of modeled bridge. Risks: Revenue per Bed, Occupancy Rate. Risk-adjusted uplift: $1.9M (vs $3.0M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $1.1M | $1.1M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $1.1M | $31K | $1.1M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $174K | $516K | $690K | $2.2M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $36K | $36K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 41.9% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $284K | $567K | $851K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $281K | $561K | $842K | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M | $1.1M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $230K | $460K | $690K | $690K | $690K | $690K | $690K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $18K | $36K | $36K | $36K | $36K | $36K | $36K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $812K | $1.6M | $2.4M | $3.0M | $3.0M | $3.0M | $3.0M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $3.0M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 54% / 8.8x | 59% / 10.1x | 63% / 11.4x | 65% / 12.1x | 66% / 12.8x |
| 9.0x | 49% / 7.4x | 54% / 8.6x | 58% / 9.8x | 60% / 10.4x | 62% / 11.0x |
| 10.0x | 45% / 6.4x | 49% / 7.4x | 53% / 8.5x | 55% / 9.0x | 57% / 9.6x |
| 11.0x | 41% / 5.5x | 45% / 6.5x | 49% / 7.4x | 51% / 7.9x | 53% / 8.4x |
| 12.0x | 37% / 4.8x | 41% / 5.7x | 46% / 6.5x | 48% / 7.0x | 49% / 7.4x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 12% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 5.7x, adding 2.8 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $6.2M | — | $6.2M | 10.9% |
| Year 1 | $6.3M | +$2.0M | $8.3M | 14.7% |
| Year 2 | $6.5M | +$3.0M | $9.5M | 16.8% |
| Year 3 | $6.7M | +$3.0M | $9.7M | 17.1% |
| Year 4 | $6.9M | +$3.0M | $9.9M | 17.5% |
| Year 5 | $7.1M | +$3.0M | $10.1M | 17.8% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $567K | $851K | $1.1M | $1.4M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $561K | $842K | $1.1M | $1.3M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $345K | $517K | $690K | $828K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $18K | $27K | $36K | $44K |
| Total | $1.5M | $2.2M | $3.0M | $3.6M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 2167 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 10.9% | -15.5% | -3.4% | 8.0% | P80 |
| Net-to-Gross | 64.8% | 21.1% | 30.4% | 41.9% | P92 |
| Occupancy | 47.0% | 38.6% | 56.0% | 73.0% | P36 |
| Rev/Bed | $691K | $402K | $848K | $1.6M | P44 |
| Exp/Bed | $616K | $401K | $902K | $1.6M | P40 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.