Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 73% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Revenue per Bed. Risks: Bed Count. Risk-adjusted uplift: $42.7M (vs $58.3M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $22.2M | $22.2M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $21.3M | $609K | $21.9M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $3.4M | $10.1M | $13.5M | $42.5M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $709K | $709K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 32.7% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $5.5M | $11.1M | $16.6M | $22.2M | $22.2M | $22.2M | $22.2M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $5.5M | $11.0M | $16.5M | $21.9M | $21.9M | $21.9M | $21.9M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $4.5M | $9.0M | $13.5M | $13.5M | $13.5M | $13.5M | $13.5M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $355K | $709K | $709K | $709K | $709K | $709K | $709K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $15.9M | $31.7M | $47.3M | $58.3M | $58.3M | $58.3M | $58.3M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $58.3M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 62% / 11.3x | 67% / 12.9x | 71% / 14.6x | 73% / 15.4x | 75% / 16.2x |
| 9.0x | 58% / 9.7x | 62% / 11.2x | 66% / 12.6x | 68% / 13.3x | 70% / 14.0x |
| 10.0x | 53% / 8.4x | 58% / 9.7x | 62% / 11.0x | 63% / 11.7x | 65% / 12.3x |
| 11.0x | 49% / 7.3x | 54% / 8.5x | 58% / 9.7x | 59% / 10.3x | 61% / 10.9x |
| 12.0x | 45% / 6.5x | 50% / 7.5x | 54% / 8.6x | 56% / 9.2x | 58% / 9.7x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 29% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 4.6x, adding 3.8 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $69.9M | — | $69.9M | 6.3% |
| Year 1 | $72.0M | +$38.9M | $110.8M | 10.0% |
| Year 2 | $74.1M | +$58.3M | $132.4M | 12.0% |
| Year 3 | $76.4M | +$58.3M | $134.7M | 12.2% |
| Year 4 | $78.7M | +$58.3M | $136.9M | 12.4% |
| Year 5 | $81.0M | +$58.3M | $139.3M | 12.6% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $11.1M | $16.6M | $22.2M | $26.6M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $11.0M | $16.5M | $21.9M | $26.3M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $6.7M | $10.1M | $13.5M | $16.2M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $355K | $532K | $709K | $851K |
| Total | $29.1M | $43.7M | $58.3M | $70.0M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 1167 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 6.3% | -13.2% | -3.8% | 5.0% | P78 |
| Net-to-Gross | 31.7% | 18.8% | 25.3% | 32.7% | P73 |
| Occupancy | 82.9% | 59.5% | 70.9% | 79.2% | P83 |
| Rev/Bed | $2.8M | $1.2M | $1.5M | $2.1M | P89 |
| Exp/Bed | $2.6M | $1.1M | $1.6M | $2.2M | P83 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.