Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 71% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Revenue per Bed. Risk-adjusted uplift: $13.1M (vs $18.5M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $7.0M | $7.0M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $6.8M | $193K | $7.0M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $1.1M | $3.2M | $4.3M | $13.5M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $225K | $225K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 30.9% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $1.8M | $3.5M | $5.3M | $7.0M | $7.0M | $7.0M | $7.0M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $1.7M | $3.5M | $5.2M | $7.0M | $7.0M | $7.0M | $7.0M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $1.4M | $2.9M | $4.3M | $4.3M | $4.3M | $4.3M | $4.3M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $112K | $225K | $225K | $225K | $225K | $225K | $225K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $5.0M | $10.1M | $15.0M | $18.5M | $18.5M | $18.5M | $18.5M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $18.5M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 52% / 8.2x | 57% / 9.5x | 61% / 10.8x | 63% / 11.4x | 64% / 12.0x |
| 9.0x | 47% / 6.9x | 52% / 8.1x | 56% / 9.2x | 58% / 9.8x | 60% / 10.3x |
| 10.0x | 43% / 5.9x | 47% / 6.9x | 51% / 8.0x | 53% / 8.5x | 55% / 9.0x |
| 11.0x | 38% / 5.1x | 43% / 6.0x | 47% / 6.9x | 49% / 7.4x | 51% / 7.9x |
| 12.0x | 34% / 4.4x | 39% / 5.2x | 44% / 6.1x | 45% / 6.5x | 47% / 6.9x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 8% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 6.0x, adding 2.5 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $45.3M | — | $45.3M | 12.9% |
| Year 1 | $46.7M | +$12.3M | $59.0M | 16.8% |
| Year 2 | $48.1M | +$18.5M | $66.6M | 18.9% |
| Year 3 | $49.5M | +$18.5M | $68.0M | 19.3% |
| Year 4 | $51.0M | +$18.5M | $69.5M | 19.8% |
| Year 5 | $52.5M | +$18.5M | $71.0M | 20.2% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $3.5M | $5.3M | $7.0M | $8.4M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $3.5M | $5.2M | $7.0M | $8.4M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $2.1M | $3.2M | $4.3M | $5.1M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $112K | $169K | $225K | $270K |
| Total | $9.2M | $13.9M | $18.5M | $22.2M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 34 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 12.9% | -10.5% | -1.0% | 8.8% | P85 |
| Net-to-Gross | 21.3% | 17.4% | 21.6% | 30.9% | P47 |
| Occupancy | 62.1% | 55.9% | 64.3% | 75.0% | P35 |
| Rev/Bed | $2.2M | $869K | $1.7M | $2.2M | P71 |
| Exp/Bed | $1.9M | $1.1M | $1.7M | $2.0M | P62 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.