Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 66% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Revenue per Bed, Bed Count. Risks: Occupancy Rate, Net-to-Gross Ratio. Risk-adjusted uplift: $0.8M (vs $1.2M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 97.0% BENCHMARK | $350K | $0 | $350K | $0 | 18mo |
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $334K | $334K | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $321K | $9K | $330K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $51K | $152K | $203K | $640K | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $11K | $11K | $0 | 6mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | $0 | $58K | $117K | $175K | $234K | $350K | $350K | $350K |
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $83K | $167K | $250K | $334K | $334K | $334K | $334K |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $83K | $165K | $248K | $330K | $330K | $330K | $330K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $68K | $135K | $203K | $203K | $203K | $203K | $203K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $5K | $11K | $11K | $11K | $11K | $11K | $11K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $297K | $595K | $887K | $1.1M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $1.2M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 9.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 10.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 11.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
| 12.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x | -100% / 0.0x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 730% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 99.0x to -40.9x, adding 139.9 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $-1.0M | — | $-1.0M | -6.1% |
| Year 1 | $-1.0M | +$818K | $-229K | -1.4% |
| Year 2 | $-1.1M | +$1.2M | $148K | 0.9% |
| Year 3 | $-1.1M | +$1.2M | $116K | 0.7% |
| Year 4 | $-1.1M | +$1.2M | $83K | 0.5% |
| Year 5 | $-1.2M | +$1.2M | $48K | 0.3% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Collection Rate | $175K | $263K | $350K | $420K |
| Cost to Collect | $167K | $250K | $334K | $400K |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $165K | $248K | $330K | $396K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $101K | $152K | $203K | $244K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $5K | $8K | $11K | $13K |
| Total | $614K | $921K | $1.2M | $1.5M |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.