Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 70% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Revenue per Bed. Risks: Commercial Payer %. Risk-adjusted uplift: $15.2M (vs $21.9M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $8.3M | $8.3M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $8.0M | $228K | $8.2M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $1.3M | $3.8M | $5.1M | $15.9M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $266K | $266K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 29.2% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $2.1M | $4.2M | $6.2M | $8.3M | $8.3M | $8.3M | $8.3M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $2.1M | $4.1M | $6.2M | $8.2M | $8.2M | $8.2M | $8.2M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $1.7M | $3.4M | $5.1M | $5.1M | $5.1M | $5.1M | $5.1M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $133K | $266K | $266K | $266K | $266K | $266K | $266K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $6.0M | $11.9M | $17.7M | $21.9M | $21.9M | $21.9M | $21.9M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $21.9M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 61% / 10.7x | 65% / 12.2x | 69% / 13.7x | 71% / 14.5x | 73% / 15.3x |
| 9.0x | 56% / 9.1x | 60% / 10.5x | 64% / 11.9x | 66% / 12.5x | 68% / 13.2x |
| 10.0x | 51% / 7.9x | 56% / 9.1x | 60% / 10.3x | 61% / 11.0x | 63% / 11.6x |
| 11.0x | 47% / 6.9x | 52% / 8.0x | 56% / 9.1x | 57% / 9.7x | 59% / 10.2x |
| 12.0x | 43% / 6.0x | 48% / 7.0x | 52% / 8.1x | 54% / 8.6x | 56% / 9.1x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 25% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 4.9x, adding 3.6 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $29.5M | — | $29.5M | 7.1% |
| Year 1 | $30.3M | +$14.6M | $44.9M | 10.8% |
| Year 2 | $31.3M | +$21.9M | $53.1M | 12.8% |
| Year 3 | $32.2M | +$21.9M | $54.0M | 13.0% |
| Year 4 | $33.2M | +$21.9M | $55.0M | 13.2% |
| Year 5 | $34.1M | +$21.9M | $56.0M | 13.5% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $4.2M | $6.2M | $8.3M | $10.0M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $4.1M | $6.2M | $8.2M | $9.9M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $2.5M | $3.8M | $5.1M | $6.1M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $133K | $199K | $266K | $319K |
| Total | $10.9M | $16.4M | $21.9M | $26.2M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 201 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 7.1% | -17.7% | -3.9% | 4.5% | P81 |
| Net-to-Gross | 26.2% | 18.2% | 22.5% | 29.2% | P62 |
| Occupancy | 53.2% | 44.9% | 59.2% | 72.2% | P40 |
| Rev/Bed | $2.9M | $686K | $1.3M | $2.2M | P87 |
| Exp/Bed | $2.7M | $708K | $1.5M | $2.4M | P82 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.