Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 76% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Revenue per Bed. Risks: Bed Count, Commercial Payer %. Risk-adjusted uplift: $32.2M (vs $42.3M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $16.1M | $16.1M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $15.5M | $442K | $15.9M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $2.5M | $7.3M | $9.8M | $30.8M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $514K | $514K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 29.2% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $4.0M | $8.0M | $12.1M | $16.1M | $16.1M | $16.1M | $16.1M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $4.0M | $8.0M | $11.9M | $15.9M | $15.9M | $15.9M | $15.9M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $3.3M | $6.5M | $9.8M | $9.8M | $9.8M | $9.8M | $9.8M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $257K | $514K | $514K | $514K | $514K | $514K | $514K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $11.5M | $23.0M | $34.3M | $42.3M | $42.3M | $42.3M | $42.3M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $42.3M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 64% / 11.8x | 68% / 13.4x | 72% / 15.1x | 74% / 15.9x | 76% / 16.8x |
| 9.0x | 59% / 10.1x | 63% / 11.6x | 67% / 13.1x | 69% / 13.8x | 71% / 14.6x |
| 10.0x | 54% / 8.8x | 59% / 10.1x | 63% / 11.4x | 65% / 12.1x | 66% / 12.8x |
| 11.0x | 50% / 7.7x | 55% / 8.9x | 59% / 10.1x | 61% / 10.7x | 62% / 11.3x |
| 12.0x | 47% / 6.8x | 51% / 7.9x | 55% / 9.0x | 57% / 9.6x | 59% / 10.1x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 31% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 4.5x, adding 4.0 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $47.2M | — | $47.2M | 5.9% |
| Year 1 | $48.6M | +$28.2M | $76.8M | 9.6% |
| Year 2 | $50.1M | +$42.3M | $92.4M | 11.5% |
| Year 3 | $51.6M | +$42.3M | $93.9M | 11.7% |
| Year 4 | $53.1M | +$42.3M | $95.4M | 11.9% |
| Year 5 | $54.7M | +$42.3M | $97.0M | 12.1% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $8.0M | $12.1M | $16.1M | $19.3M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $8.0M | $11.9M | $15.9M | $19.1M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $4.9M | $7.3M | $9.8M | $11.7M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $257K | $386K | $514K | $617K |
| Total | $21.1M | $31.7M | $42.3M | $50.7M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 198 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 5.9% | -16.7% | -3.9% | 4.5% | P80 |
| Net-to-Gross | 25.6% | 17.1% | 22.4% | 29.2% | P60 |
| Occupancy | 84.8% | 51.0% | 64.5% | 75.3% | P86 |
| Rev/Bed | $3.5M | $1.1M | $1.6M | $2.5M | P92 |
| Exp/Bed | $3.2M | $1.2M | $1.8M | $2.6M | P90 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.