Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 72% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Revenue per Bed. Risks: Bed Count. Risk-adjusted uplift: $50.9M (vs $70.4M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $26.8M | $26.8M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $25.8M | $736K | $26.5M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $4.1M | $12.2M | $16.3M | $51.3M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $856K | $856K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 28.9% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $6.7M | $13.4M | $20.1M | $26.8M | $26.8M | $26.8M | $26.8M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $6.6M | $13.2M | $19.9M | $26.5M | $26.5M | $26.5M | $26.5M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $5.4M | $10.9M | $16.3M | $16.3M | $16.3M | $16.3M | $16.3M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $428K | $856K | $856K | $856K | $856K | $856K | $856K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $19.2M | $38.3M | $57.1M | $70.4M | $70.4M | $70.4M | $70.4M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $70.4M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 53% / 8.5x | 58% / 9.8x | 62% / 11.1x | 64% / 11.8x | 66% / 12.4x |
| 9.0x | 48% / 7.2x | 53% / 8.4x | 57% / 9.5x | 59% / 10.1x | 61% / 10.7x |
| 10.0x | 44% / 6.2x | 48% / 7.2x | 52% / 8.2x | 54% / 8.8x | 56% / 9.3x |
| 11.0x | 40% / 5.3x | 44% / 6.2x | 48% / 7.2x | 50% / 7.7x | 52% / 8.2x |
| 12.0x | 36% / 4.6x | 40% / 5.5x | 45% / 6.3x | 47% / 6.8x | 48% / 7.2x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 10% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 5.8x, adding 2.6 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $156.9M | — | $156.9M | 11.7% |
| Year 1 | $161.6M | +$46.9M | $208.6M | 15.6% |
| Year 2 | $166.5M | +$70.4M | $236.9M | 17.7% |
| Year 3 | $171.5M | +$70.4M | $241.9M | 18.1% |
| Year 4 | $176.6M | +$70.4M | $247.0M | 18.5% |
| Year 5 | $181.9M | +$70.4M | $252.3M | 18.9% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $13.4M | $20.1M | $26.8M | $32.1M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $13.2M | $19.9M | $26.5M | $31.8M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $8.1M | $12.2M | $16.3M | $19.5M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $428K | $642K | $856K | $1.0M |
| Total | $35.2M | $52.8M | $70.4M | $84.5M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 146 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 11.7% | -15.9% | -4.4% | 3.7% | P90 |
| Net-to-Gross | 23.7% | 17.9% | 23.3% | 28.9% | P51 |
| Occupancy | 71.5% | 54.8% | 65.7% | 75.3% | P63 |
| Rev/Bed | $3.4M | $1.4M | $1.9M | $2.7M | P88 |
| Exp/Bed | $3.0M | $1.5M | $2.0M | $2.8M | P82 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.