Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 70% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Revenue per Bed. Risk-adjusted uplift: $17.2M (vs $24.6M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $9.4M | $9.4M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $9.0M | $257K | $9.3M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $1.4M | $4.3M | $5.7M | $17.9M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $299K | $299K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 29.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $2.3M | $4.7M | $7.0M | $9.4M | $9.4M | $9.4M | $9.4M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $2.3M | $4.6M | $6.9M | $9.3M | $9.3M | $9.3M | $9.3M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $1.9M | $3.8M | $5.7M | $5.7M | $5.7M | $5.7M | $5.7M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $150K | $299K | $299K | $299K | $299K | $299K | $299K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $6.7M | $13.4M | $19.9M | $24.6M | $24.6M | $24.6M | $24.6M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $24.6M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 111% / 42.0x | 116% / 47.0x | 120% / 52.0x | 123% / 54.5x | 125% / 57.1x |
| 9.0x | 106% / 37.0x | 111% / 41.4x | 115% / 45.9x | 117% / 48.1x | 119% / 50.4x |
| 10.0x | 101% / 32.9x | 106% / 37.0x | 110% / 41.0x | 112% / 43.0x | 114% / 45.0x |
| 11.0x | 97% / 29.6x | 102% / 33.3x | 106% / 37.0x | 108% / 38.8x | 110% / 40.6x |
| 12.0x | 93% / 26.9x | 98% / 30.3x | 102% / 33.6x | 104% / 35.3x | 106% / 37.0x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 78% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 1.4x, adding 7.1 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $4.9M | — | $4.9M | 1.0% |
| Year 1 | $5.0M | +$16.4M | $21.4M | 4.6% |
| Year 2 | $5.2M | +$24.6M | $29.8M | 6.4% |
| Year 3 | $5.3M | +$24.6M | $29.9M | 6.4% |
| Year 4 | $5.5M | +$24.6M | $30.1M | 6.4% |
| Year 5 | $5.7M | +$24.6M | $30.3M | 6.5% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $4.7M | $7.0M | $9.4M | $11.2M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $4.6M | $6.9M | $9.3M | $11.1M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $2.8M | $4.3M | $5.7M | $6.8M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $150K | $224K | $299K | $359K |
| Total | $12.3M | $18.4M | $24.6M | $29.5M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 224 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 1.0% | -16.8% | -4.3% | 4.8% | P66 |
| Net-to-Gross | 19.0% | 17.3% | 22.2% | 29.0% | P31 |
| Occupancy | 59.1% | 47.1% | 61.7% | 73.4% | P44 |
| Rev/Bed | $2.3M | $907K | $1.5M | $2.3M | P74 |
| Exp/Bed | $2.3M | $968K | $1.7M | $2.4M | P69 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.