Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 75% of modeled bridge. Strengths: Occupancy Rate, Revenue per Bed. Risks: Bed Count. Risk-adjusted uplift: $49.2M (vs $66.0M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $25.1M | $25.1M | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $24.2M | $690K | $24.9M | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $3.9M | $11.4M | $15.3M | $48.2M | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $803K | $803K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 26.3% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $6.3M | $12.6M | $18.8M | $25.1M | $25.1M | $25.1M | $25.1M |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $6.2M | $12.4M | $18.6M | $24.9M | $24.9M | $24.9M | $24.9M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $5.1M | $10.2M | $15.3M | $15.3M | $15.3M | $15.3M | $15.3M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $402K | $803K | $803K | $803K | $803K | $803K | $803K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $18.0M | $36.0M | $53.6M | $66.0M | $66.0M | $66.0M | $66.0M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $66.0M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 63% / 11.6x | 68% / 13.2x | 72% / 14.9x | 74% / 15.7x | 75% / 16.6x |
| 9.0x | 58% / 9.9x | 63% / 11.4x | 67% / 12.9x | 69% / 13.6x | 70% / 14.3x |
| 10.0x | 54% / 8.6x | 58% / 9.9x | 62% / 11.3x | 64% / 11.9x | 66% / 12.6x |
| 11.0x | 50% / 7.5x | 54% / 8.8x | 58% / 9.9x | 60% / 10.6x | 62% / 11.2x |
| 12.0x | 46% / 6.7x | 51% / 7.8x | 55% / 8.8x | 57% / 9.4x | 58% / 9.9x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 30% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 4.5x, adding 3.9 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $75.8M | — | $75.8M | 6.0% |
| Year 1 | $78.1M | +$44.0M | $122.1M | 9.7% |
| Year 2 | $80.4M | +$66.0M | $146.5M | 11.7% |
| Year 3 | $82.9M | +$66.0M | $148.9M | 11.9% |
| Year 4 | $85.3M | +$66.0M | $151.4M | 12.1% |
| Year 5 | $87.9M | +$66.0M | $153.9M | 12.3% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $12.6M | $18.8M | $25.1M | $30.1M |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $12.4M | $18.6M | $24.9M | $29.8M |
| A/R Days Reduction | $7.6M | $11.5M | $15.3M | $18.3M |
| Clean Claim Rate | $402K | $603K | $803K | $964K |
| Total | $33.0M | $49.5M | $66.0M | $79.3M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 29 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 6.0% | -4.6% | -0.8% | 6.3% | P69 |
| Net-to-Gross | 30.7% | 16.1% | 20.7% | 26.3% | P83 |
| Occupancy | 74.8% | 59.5% | 72.5% | 80.0% | P59 |
| Rev/Bed | $3.6M | $1.3M | $1.7M | $2.1M | P86 |
| Exp/Bed | $3.4M | $1.2M | $1.5M | $2.0M | P93 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.