Bridge Realization Estimate
ML model predicts what fraction of the bridge is achievable (accuracy: 60%, n=5,839)
Expected realization: 66% of modeled bridge. Risks: Revenue per Bed, Net-to-Gross Ratio. Risk-adjusted uplift: $0.8M (vs $1.2M modeled).
EBITDA Bridge — 7 RCM Levers
Each bar shows the annual EBITDA impact at full run-rate. Revenue levers increase top-line; cost levers reduce operating expense; cash acceleration releases working capital. Calibrated to published research bands (Denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR).
Lever Detail
Each value shows its data source. SELLER = seller data room, DEFAULT = model default, BENCHMARK = P75 peer benchmark.
| Lever | Current | Target | Revenue | Cost | EBITDA | WC | Ramp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | 4.5% DEFAULT | 2.5% BENCHMARK | $0 | $452K | $452K | $0 | 12mo |
| Denial Rate Reduction | 12.0% DEFAULT | 6.5% BENCHMARK | $435K | $12K | $447K | $0 | 12mo |
| A/R Days Reduction | 52.00 DEFAULT | 38.00 BENCHMARK | $69K | $206K | $275K | $867K | 9mo |
| Clean Claim Rate | 88.0% DEFAULT | 96.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $14K | $14K | $0 | 6mo |
| Net Collection Rate | 93.5% DEFAULT | 53.9% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
| CDI / Case Mix Index | 135.0% DEFAULT | 142.0% BENCHMARK | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | 18mo |
Implementation Timing Curve
Linear ramp to full run-rate per lever. Month 0 = close date. Partners should expect 60-70% of total uplift realized by month 12.
| Lever | M0 | M3 | M6 | M9 | M12 | M18 | M24 | M36 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $0 | $113K | $226K | $339K | $452K | $452K | $452K | $452K |
| Denial Rate Reduction | $0 | $112K | $224K | $336K | $447K | $447K | $447K | $447K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $0 | $92K | $183K | $275K | $275K | $275K | $275K | $275K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $0 | $7K | $14K | $14K | $14K | $14K | $14K | $14K |
| Cumulative | $0 | $324K | $647K | $964K | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M | $1.2M |
Returns Sensitivity (IRR / MOIC)
5-year hold, 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown. Green = exceeds 20% IRR hurdle. Amber = 15-20%. Red = below hurdle or loss. RCM uplift of $1.2M is added at exit.
| Entry \ Exit | 9.0x | 10.0x | 11.0x | 11.5x | 12.0x |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8.0x | 73% / 15.5x | 77% / 17.6x | 81% / 19.7x | 83% / 20.7x | 85% / 21.8x |
| 9.0x | 68% / 13.4x | 73% / 15.3x | 77% / 17.1x | 78% / 18.1x | 80% / 19.0x |
| 10.0x | 64% / 11.8x | 68% / 13.4x | 72% / 15.1x | 74% / 15.9x | 76% / 16.8x |
| 11.0x | 60% / 10.4x | 64% / 11.9x | 68% / 13.4x | 70% / 14.2x | 72% / 14.9x |
| 12.0x | 56% / 9.3x | 61% / 10.7x | 64% / 12.1x | 66% / 12.7x | 68% / 13.4x |
Covenant Headroom (at 10x Entry, 6.5x Max Leverage)
Pro forma EBITDA can decline 46% before the 6.5x covenant trips. RCM uplift reduces leverage from 8.5x to 3.5x, adding 4.9 turns of cushion.
5-Year Value Creation Waterfall
EBITDA trajectory: 3% organic growth + RCM uplift ramp (full run-rate at month 18).
| Base EBITDA | RCM Uplift | Total | Margin | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Entry | $845K | — | $845K | 3.7% |
| Year 1 | $870K | +$792K | $1.7M | 7.4% |
| Year 2 | $896K | +$1.2M | $2.1M | 9.2% |
| Year 3 | $923K | +$1.2M | $2.1M | 9.3% |
| Year 4 | $951K | +$1.2M | $2.1M | 9.5% |
| Year 5 | $979K | +$1.2M | $2.2M | 9.6% |
Achievement Sensitivity
What if we only achieve a fraction of each lever? 50% = conservative, 75% = base management case, 100% = plan, 120% = stretch.
| Lever | 50% | 75% | 100% | 120% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cost to Collect | $226K | $339K | $452K | $542K |
| Denial Rate Reductio | $224K | $336K | $447K | $537K |
| A/R Days Reduction | $137K | $206K | $275K | $330K |
| Clean Claim Rate | $7K | $11K | $14K | $17K |
| Total | $594K | $892K | $1.2M | $1.4M |
Peer Context — Where This Hospital Sits
Key metrics vs 55 size-matched peers. Low percentile on margin/efficiency metrics = more room for improvement = larger bridge opportunity.
| Metric | Hospital | P25 | P50 | P75 | Percentile |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Op Margin | 3.7% | -10.8% | 2.4% | 10.2% | P59 |
| Net-to-Gross | 64.4% | 20.2% | 31.1% | 53.9% | P88 |
| Occupancy | 54.4% | 39.9% | 56.0% | 74.1% | P47 |
| Rev/Bed | $301K | $274K | $452K | $1.1M | P29 |
| Exp/Bed | $290K | $297K | $502K | $1.4M | P22 |
Bridge Methodology
Coefficients calibrated to published research bands: denial 12%→5% = $8-15M on $400M NPR. Current metrics estimated from HCRIS public data and ML predictions. Target metrics set at P75 peer benchmarks with 60% gap closure assumption. Revenue levers use NPR × delta × avoidable share. Cost levers use claims volume × cost per reworked claim. Working capital from AR reduction is one-time cash (not included in recurring EBITDA). Returns assume 5.5x leverage, 3% organic growth, 10%/yr debt paydown.