Drug Shortage
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Drug Shortage / Supply-Chain Risk
FDA shortage list · supplier concentration · geographic exposure · shortage playbooks · GPO reliability — 1,705 corpus deals
Critical Drugs
15
Active Shortages
5
Platform Spend
$34.9M
Sole-Source Exposure
$1.70M
Supply Risk Score
86/100
Risk Tier
ELEVATED
GPO Partners
5
Corpus Deals
1,705
Supply Chain Posture
Risk tier ELEVATED · 5 active shortages · $22.90M probability-weighted shortfall exposure
Sole-source exposure $1.70M · highest-risk drugs in oncology (5-FU, Cisplatin)
Critical Drug Inventory & Shortage Status
| Drug | Therapy | Shortage Status | Sole-Source | Annual Volume | Substitute | Spend ($M) | Days on Hand |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carboplatin (Inj) | Oncology | FDA Shortage - resolved 2024 | NO | 48,000 | YES | $3.85 | 45 |
| Cisplatin (Inj) | Oncology | FDA Shortage - active | NO | 28,500 | YES | $2.65 | 28 |
| Methotrexate (Rheum) | Rheumatology | stable | NO | 185,000 | YES | $1.45 | 120 |
| Fluorouracil (5-FU) | Oncology | FDA Shortage - active | NO | 32,000 | YES | $4.25 | 35 |
| Bupivacaine (Reg Anesthesia) | Anesthesia | stable | NO | 245,000 | YES | $0.95 | 90 |
| Propofol (Sedation) | Anesthesia | intermittent availability | NO | 425,000 | YES | $1.85 | 62 |
| Rocuronium (NMB) | Anesthesia | stable | NO | 85,000 | YES | $0.55 | 95 |
| Doxorubicin (Anthracycline) | Oncology | stable | NO | 22,000 | YES | $2.15 | 108 |
| Pegfilgrastim (Neulasta) | Oncology Supportive | stable - biosimilars | NO | 18,500 | YES | $12.55 | 75 |
| Dexmedetomidine | ICU Sedation | intermittent availability | NO | 65,000 | YES | $0.85 | 48 |
| Adenosine (Cardiac Stress) | Cardiology | stable | YES | 12,500 | NO | $0.45 | 55 |
| Amiodarone (Anti-Arrhythmic) | Cardiology | stable | NO | 38,000 | YES | $0.65 | 88 |
| Epinephrine (1:1000) | Emergency | rolling shortage | NO | 485,000 | YES | $0.95 | 42 |
| Lidocaine (Local) | Multi-Use | stable | NO | 1,250,000 | YES | $0.45 | 95 |
| Regadenoson (Lexiscan) | Cardiac Imaging | stable | YES | 8,500 | NO | $1.25 | 68 |
Supplier Concentration & Audit History
| Supplier | Category | Spend ($M) | Category Share | Country | Audit History | Risk Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pfizer Hospira | Injectables / Oncology | $28.50 | 38% | US/PR/IT | 2x FDA 483s 2023-2024 | 72 |
| Fresenius Kabi | Sterile Injectables | $18.50 | 24% | DE/AT/CN | clean 3-yr | 42 |
| Baxter International | IV Solutions / Hospital | $22.50 | 58% | US/PR | PR hurricane disruption 2023 | 58 |
| Teva Pharmaceuticals | Generics Oral | $12.50 | 22% | IL/US/HU | clean 2-yr | 45 |
| Mylan / Viatris | Generics | $15.80 | 28% | IN/US/DE | clean 3-yr | 48 |
| Sandoz (Novartis) | Biosimilars / Generics | $18.50 | 32% | CH/DE/AT | clean 3-yr | 35 |
| Amgen / Biosimilars | Biologics | $32.50 | 45% | US/PR/IE | clean 3-yr | 28 |
| AstraZeneca | Respiratory / Oncology | $21.50 | 35% | UK/SE/US | clean 3-yr | 32 |
| Merck | Oncology / Vaccines | $38.50 | 42% | US/IE/NL | clean 3-yr | 25 |
| Sun Pharma | Generics / Derm | $8.20 | 15% | IN/US | 1x FDA Warning Letter 2023 | 65 |
Geographic Exposure & Tariff Risk
| Country | Product Categories | Spend Exposure ($M) | Tariff Risk | Geopolitical Risk | Diversification Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States | 42 | $118.50 | 0.0% | very low | 98 |
| European Union | 28 | $68.50 | 12.0% | low | 85 |
| China | 18 | $28.50 | 28.0% | elevated | 45 |
| India | 35 | $42.50 | 18.0% | moderate | 72 |
| Puerto Rico | 12 | $38.50 | 5.0% | hurricane risk | 62 |
| Ireland | 15 | $28.50 | 8.0% | low | 82 |
| Israel | 6 | $8.50 | 12.0% | moderate | 58 |
| Switzerland | 8 | $12.50 | 8.0% | low | 85 |
Shortage Scenario Playbooks
| Scenario | Probability | Financial Impact ($M) | Operational Impact | Mitigation | Lead Time (days) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China tariff escalation (sterile injectables) | 45% | $8.50 | Price pass-through to payers (limited) | in progress | 30 |
| Puerto Rico hurricane (IV solutions) | 25% | $12.50 | Inventory pre-positioning; alt suppliers | drill complete | 14 |
| Oncology 5-FU / Cisplatin critical shortage | 75% | $15.80 | Compounding pharmacy partnership | activated | 7 |
| FDA Warning Letter - Teva or Sun | 32% | $4.20 | Alternate NDC switching playbook | standing | 3 |
| GPO price renegotiation failure | 22% | $5.80 | Secondary GPO contract activation | evaluated | 30 |
| Biosimilar supply interruption | 15% | $6.50 | Reference product fallback; payer coordination | standing | 21 |
| DEA quota change (Schedule II/III) | 18% | $2.80 | Prescriber rotation; state compact alternatives | standing | 60 |
GPO Partner Performance
| GPO | Contracts | Annual Volume ($M) | On-Time Fill | Backorder Rate | Price Stability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vizient | 2,850 | $85.50 | 96.0% | 2.5% | 94% |
| Premier | 1,985 | $62.50 | 95.0% | 2.8% | 93% |
| HealthTrust | 1,450 | $48.50 | 94.0% | 3.2% | 92% |
| Intalere | 685 | $22.50 | 93.0% | 3.5% | 91% |
| Captis / MedAssets | 845 | $28.50 | 92.0% | 3.8% | 90% |
Supply Chain Thesis: 5 of 15 critical drugs in active or intermittent shortage.
Sole-source exposure $1.70M (Adenosine, Regadenoson — cardiac stress testing).
China sterile-injectables tariff escalation is the highest-probability / highest-impact scenario at 45% likelihood and $8.5M downside.
Vizient and Premier GPO performance is strong (95-96% fill rate, 2.5-2.8% backorder) — dual-sourcing strategy mitigates single-GPO risk.
Recommend: activate compounding-pharmacy partnerships for oncology drugs, pre-position 90 days inventory on sole-source drugs, and establish secondary GPO contract for bottom-tercile drugs.