"Interest Coverage" covenant crosses 50% breach probability in Y1Q1 — $0.5M median equity cure.
Net Leverage: peak 4% in Y5Q1 (median metric 4.15 vs threshold 5.50) · DSCR: peak 100% in Y6Q1 (median metric 0.70 vs threshold 1.25) · Interest Coverage: peak 96% in Y3Q1 (median metric 1.93 vs threshold 2.50)
Max Breach Prob
100%
vs <10% bank target · <25% acceptable
Earliest 50% Breach
Y1Q1
quarter any covenant first crosses 50% breach probability
Simulated Paths
500
synthetic EBITDA trials
Quarters Tested
24
6-year horizon
Plain-English read:Above PE-bank acceptable ceiling (>50% breach). Lenders typically re-price, tighten, or walk at this level.
Per-quarter breach probability — all covenants
● <10% breach — bank comfortable● 10-25% — tight but bankable● 25-50% — negotiate cushion● ≥50% — re-price or walk
Plain-English read:First covenant to hit 50% breach probability is DSCR in Y6Q1.
How to read: Each line is one covenant. Y-axis is probability of breach across simulated EBITDA paths in that quarter; X-axis is quarters from close. Dashed lines mark 25%, 50%, 75% probability thresholds. Hover any dot for the exact metric value. A line rising sharply through 50% is the covenant to negotiate at the LOI — reset, cushion, or step-down deferral.
Debt service cliff — quarterly stack
Plain-English read:Peak quarterly debt service is $41.59M in Y6Q1 ($166.4M annualized). At a 1.5× DSCR floor, the target needs $249.6M LTM EBITDA in that quarter to stay inside the covenant.
How to read: Each bar is one quarter of debt service. Red is interest on outstanding balance; amber is scheduled amortization. TLB/unitranche bullets concentrate amortization in the final year — that spike is where refinance risk concentrates. Flat interest early = floating-rate base stable; steepening = rate-path stress.
Equity cure sizing · partner sponsor capital required
Covenant
First Cure Q
Median Cure
P75 Cure
Breach Path %
Net Leverage
Y1Q1
$8.77M
$17.39M
4% of paths
DSCR
Y1Q1
$0.86M
$0.96M
100% of paths
Interest Coverage
Y1Q1
$0.45M
$0.63M
96% of paths
How to read: For leverage covenants the cure equals the debt paydown that drops leverage to threshold; for coverage covenants it's the synthetic EBITDA add allowed by the credit agreement ("yank-the-bank" provision, capped at ~25% of LTM EBITDA). P75 shows the right-tail scenario — the partner should underwrite equity capacity for at least P75.
Covenant detail — peak breach + first-at
Green/amber/red cells reflect PE-bank underwriting thresholds — click any column to sort, CSV exports auto-wired.
Covenant
Peak Breach %
Peak Quarter
50% First At
25% First At
Median Cure $
Breach Path %
Interpretation
DSCR
100%
Y6Q1
Y6Q1
Y6Q1
$0.9M
100%
FAIL — renegotiate covenant or walk
Interest Coverage
96%
Y3Q1
Y1Q1
Y1Q1
$0.5M
96%
FAIL — renegotiate covenant or walk
Net Leverage
4%
Y5Q1
never
—
$8.8M
4%
PASS — clears bank norms
Capital stack detail
Capital stack · senior-first
Tranche
Type
Principal
Term
Spread bps
Amort
Lien
TLB
TLB
$102.1M
6y
+450
1% + bullet
L1
Unitranche
UNITRANCHE
$39.3M
6y
+600
1% + bullet
L1
Mezzanine
MEZZANINE
$15.7M
6y
+950
IO + bullet
L2
Cross-reference
→ Deal MC produced the EBITDA cone that feeds this lab · → Regulatory Calendar produced the overlay applied above · → Exit Timing uses the same leverage path for refinance feasibility.
JSON export — full stress report
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