Bear Case (no CCD) — SOUTHEAST HEALTH MEDICAL CENTER
3 critical · $0.0M at risk
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Working dealSOUTHEAST HEALTH MEDICAL CENTER·$21.4M EBITDA
Bear Case · no CCD fixture
SOUTHEAST HEALTH MEDICAL CENTER
3 evidence items · 1 sources (no claims data) · fast-path bear case
Bear Case · auto-synthesized
Thesis is at risk on 3 CRITICAL evidence items. Top drivers: regulatory event on 2026-02-10, regulatory event on 2026-01-01, regulatory exposure.
The three largest bear-case drivers are [R1] Tuck-in M&A cadence (roll-up synergy) killed by FTC HSR Expa, [R2] LEJR bundled-case margin killed by TEAM Mandatory Bundled Pa, and [R3] MSO management-fee margin killed by OIG Advisory Opinion — M. Combined EBITDA at risk across the bear case is $0.0M. 3 CRITICAL, 0 HIGH, and 0 MEDIUM evidence items drawn from 1 source module (REGULATORY_CALENDAR).
EBITDA at risk · % of run-rate
0%
better than 3%–10% IC-critical band
EBITDA at Risk
$0.0M (0% of run-rate — clears IC)
sum across evidence · <3% clears IC · >10% material · >25% killable
Critical Items
3
thesis-breaking on their own
High Items
0
IC-level risks
Medium Items
0
worth naming in memo
Modules Pulled
1
evidence sources active
How to use this: Fast-path bear case: runs only the modules that don't need a CCD claims fixture (Regulatory Calendar + HCRIS X-Ray). For the full 7-source bear case including denial prediction, physician attrition, and Deal MC, supply a dataset fixture.
Evidence
Regulatory · 3 items
Regulatory risk is material — 3 CRITICAL + 0 secondary evidence items. [R1] Tuck-in M&A cadence (roll-up synergy) killed by FTC HSR Expanded Reporting — Effective Feb 2026; [R2] LEJR bundled-case margin killed by TEAM Mandatory Bundled Payment — Effective CY2026; [R3] MSO management-fee margin killed by OIG Advisory Opinion — Management-Fee FMV Expansion.
[R1] CRITICAL
Tuck-in M&A cadence (roll-up synergy) killed by FTC HSR Expanded Reporting — Effective Feb 2026
FTC HSR Expanded Reporting — Effective Feb 2026 impairs 90% of the driver's claimed 4.0 pp EBITDA lift; residual 0.4 pp. First impact 2026-02-10.
[R2] CRITICAL
LEJR bundled-case margin killed by TEAM Mandatory Bundled Payment — Effective CY2026
TEAM Mandatory Bundled Payment — Effective CY2026 impairs 70% of the driver's claimed 2.0 pp EBITDA lift; residual 0.6 pp. First impact 2026-01-01.
[R3] CRITICAL
MSO management-fee margin killed by OIG Advisory Opinion — Management-Fee FMV Expansion
OIG Advisory Opinion — Management-Fee FMV Expansion impairs 70% of the driver's claimed 2.5 pp EBITDA lift; residual 0.8 pp. First impact within horizon.
IC-memo drop-in: Copy the block below into the IC memo. Every evidence item carries a citation key (R1, C1, B1...) mapped to the source module. Print-friendly formatting.
Bear Case · auto-generated
SOUTHEAST HEALTH MEDICAL CENTER — What Could Break the Thesis
Combined EBITDA at risk: $0.0M. 3 CRITICAL + 0 HIGH evidence items across 1 source modules.
| [R1] CRITICAL | Tuck-in M&A cadence (roll-up synergy) killed by FTC HSR Expanded Reporting — Effective Feb 2026 FTC HSR Expanded Reporting — Effective Feb 2026 impairs 90% of the driver's claimed 4.0 pp EBITDA lift; residual 0.4 pp. First impact 2026-02-10. |
| [R2] CRITICAL | LEJR bundled-case margin killed by TEAM Mandatory Bundled Payment — Effective CY2026 TEAM Mandatory Bundled Payment — Effective CY2026 impairs 70% of the driver's claimed 2.0 pp EBITDA lift; residual 0.6 pp. First impact 2026-01-01. |
| [R3] CRITICAL | MSO management-fee margin killed by OIG Advisory Opinion — Management-Fee FMV Expansion OIG Advisory Opinion — Management-Fee FMV Expansion impairs 70% of the driver's claimed 2.5 pp EBITDA lift; residual 0.8 pp. First impact within horizon. |
Auto-generated from Regulatory Calendar × Covenant Stress × Bridge Audit × Deal MC × Deal Autopsy. Citations map to source-module detail pages. Refresh before IC.
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