Deal Origination
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Deal Origination / M&A Pipeline Tracker
Active pipeline · probability-weighted EV · banker relationship matrix · sector whitespace · sourcing velocity — 1,570 corpus deals
Active Pipeline
$3,345M
Weighted Pipeline
$1,925M
Active Deals
13
LOI Stage
3
Closing
1
Bankers
12
Whitespace Sectors
15
Corpus Deals
1,570
Sourcing Funnel — Latest Quarter
Active Pipeline — Stage, Probability, Weighted EV
| Deal | Sector | Stage | Est EV ($M) | Target EBITDA ($M) | Entry Mult | Prob | Weighted EV ($M) | Source | Owner | Next Milestone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Project Azalea (GI Network SE) | Gastroenterology Pract | LOI | $285.0 | $22.00 | 13.00x | 75% | $213.75 | Jefferies | JK | 2026-06-01 — Definitive agreement |
| Project Beacon (Dermatology W) | Medical Dermatology | Diligence | $185.0 | $14.50 | 12.80x | 45% | $83.25 | Harris Williams | SR | 2026-05-22 — QoE complete |
| Project Cypress (OB/GYN TX) | Women's Health / OB | Diligence | $145.0 | $11.50 | 12.60x | 35% | $50.75 | Lincoln Intl | MN | 2026-05-22 — QoE complete |
| Project Denali (ASC Platform N | ASC Network | IC Review | $425.0 | $32.00 | 13.30x | 55% | $233.75 | Raymond James | JK | 2026-05-10 — IC vote |
| Project Everest (Behavioral SE | Behavioral Health | LOI | $325.0 | $26.00 | 12.50x | 65% | $211.25 | William Blair | DT | 2026-06-01 — Definitive agreement |
| Project Flagstaff (Orthopedic) | Orthopedics | Screening | $225.0 | $18.00 | 12.50x | 25% | $56.25 | Houlihan Lokey | SR | 2026-05-15 — Management meeting |
| Project Glacier (Home Health) | Home Health | Diligence | $165.0 | $14.00 | 11.80x | 40% | $66.00 | KPMG CF | MN | 2026-05-22 — QoE complete |
| Project Harbor (Urgent Care) | Urgent Care | Screening | $95.0 | $8.50 | 11.20x | 20% | $19.00 | Provident HP | JK | 2026-05-15 — Management meeting |
| Project Ironwood (Cardiology M | Cardiology Practice | IC Review | $385.0 | $28.00 | 13.80x | 60% | $231.00 | Evercore | DT | 2026-05-10 — IC vote |
| Project Juniper (Specialty Pha | Specialty Pharmacy | LOI | $225.0 | $17.50 | 12.90x | 70% | $157.50 | Houlihan Lokey | SR | 2026-06-01 — Definitive agreement |
| Project Kestrel (Fertility Nat | Fertility / IVF | Closing | $475.0 | $36.00 | 13.20x | 90% | $427.50 | Jefferies | DT | 2026-04-30 — Closing |
| Project Larkspur (Dental DSO) | Dental DSO | Screening | $85.0 | $7.20 | 11.80x | 15% | $12.75 | Cain Brothers | MN | 2026-05-15 — Management meeting |
| Project Meridian (MSK Platform | MSK Platform | Diligence | $325.0 | $24.00 | 13.50x | 50% | $162.50 | Lincoln Intl | JK | 2026-05-22 — QoE complete |
Banker Relationship Matrix — LTM Performance
| Banker Firm | Type | Seen LTM | Engaged | Won | Win Rate | Avg Deal ($M) | Relationship |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jefferies Healthcare | Bulge Bracket | 42 | 18 | 4 | 22.0% | $385.0 | 92 |
| Harris Williams | Middle Market | 68 | 28 | 6 | 21.0% | $245.0 | 88 |
| William Blair | Middle Market | 55 | 22 | 5 | 23.0% | $285.0 | 85 |
| Evercore Healthcare | Elite Boutique | 35 | 14 | 3 | 21.0% | $485.0 | 82 |
| Houlihan Lokey | Middle Market | 48 | 20 | 4 | 20.0% | $225.0 | 78 |
| Raymond James Healthcare | Middle Market | 62 | 24 | 5 | 21.0% | $195.0 | 75 |
| Lincoln International | Middle Market | 52 | 22 | 4 | 18.0% | $175.0 | 72 |
| Cain Brothers | Healthcare Boutique | 28 | 10 | 2 | 20.0% | $125.0 | 68 |
| Provident Healthcare Partners | Healthcare Boutique | 24 | 8 | 2 | 25.0% | $95.0 | 65 |
| KPMG Corporate Finance | Accounting/Advisory | 32 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | $165.0 | 58 |
| TripleTree | Healthcare Boutique | 22 | 9 | 2 | 22.0% | $135.0 | 70 |
| Greenhill Healthcare | Elite Boutique | 18 | 6 | 1 | 16.7% | $425.0 | 62 |
Sector Whitespace & Expansion Targets
| Sector | Active Targets | Platforms Deployed | Concentration | Whitespace Score | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dermatology Group | 4 | 0 | 0.00% | 93 | medium |
| Pediatric Therapy | 2 | 5 | 0.38% | 93 | high |
| Urology | 3 | 4 | 0.31% | 92 | medium |
| Urgent Care | 3 | 6 | 0.46% | 91 | medium |
| Fertility / IVF | 9 | 5 | 0.38% | 90 | high |
| Orthopedics | 5 | 6 | 0.46% | 89 | medium |
| Ophthalmology | 5 | 6 | 0.46% | 89 | medium |
| Radiology | 2 | 6 | 0.46% | 88 | low |
| ASC Network | 9 | 0 | 0.00% | 84 | medium |
| Medical Devices | 9 | 3 | 0.23% | 82 | medium |
| Anesthesiology | 8 | 6 | 0.46% | 82 | low |
| Women's Health / OB | 8 | 0 | 0.00% | 81 | high |
| Behavioral Health | 2 | 14 | 1.07% | 81 | high |
| Rheumatology | 3 | 3 | 0.23% | 80 | medium |
| Home Infusion | 2 | 8 | 0.61% | 75 | high |
Win/Loss Analysis
| Category | Won | Lost - Price | Lost - Strategy | Lost - Relationship | Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lost on Price | 0 | 42 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Lost on Strategic Fit | 0 | 0 | 18 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Lost on Seller Relationship | 0 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 0.0% |
| Won (Closed) | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9.5% |
| Passed - Quality Issues | 0 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Passed - Strategic | 0 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% |
| Passed - Timing | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.0% |
Sourcing Velocity — Quarterly Trend
| Quarter | Screened | Diligenced | LOI Signed | Closed | Conversion |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025Q1 | 142 | 28 | 9 | 2 | 1.41% |
| 2025Q2 | 156 | 32 | 12 | 3 | 1.92% |
| 2025Q3 | 168 | 38 | 14 | 3 | 1.79% |
| 2025Q4 | 138 | 29 | 11 | 2 | 1.45% |
| 2026Q1 | 152 | 35 | 13 | 3 | 1.97% |
Origination Thesis: $3,345M active pipeline EV weights to $1,925M probability-adjusted.
Top 3 banker relationships (Jefferies, Harris Williams, William Blair) represent ~42% of deal flow and 60% of closed transactions.
Sector whitespace concentrates in Fertility / IVF, Women's Health, Behavioral, and Pediatric Therapy — lowest platform saturation.
Win/loss skews toward price-driven losses (42 in LTM) — suggests upward multiple pressure in competitive auctions.
Velocity stable at ~2-3 closes per quarter; conversion rate 1.4-2.0% from screen to close (industry norm).
Recommend focused pursuit of Fertility and Behavioral Health bolt-ons where whitespace is open and multiples are entering reset.