Model Calibration / Backtest
365 realized deals · P50 MOIC 2.80x · Model R² -1.090 · MAE 1.243x
🛡️ Public data only — no PHI permitted on this instance.
Realized Deals
365
of 655 corpus
Corpus P50 MOIC
2.80x
realized
P25 / P75 MOIC
2.00x / 3.50x
IQR
Loss Rate
14.8%
MOIC < 1.0×
3× Homerun Rate
44.1%
MOIC ≥ 3.0×
Model R²
-1.090
n=318 calibrated pairs
MOIC DISTRIBUTIONrealized corpus outcomes
Realized MOIC Distribution — Full Corpus (n=365)
Red dashed = 1.0× breakeven · Green dashed = 2.5× threshold · Each bar = 0.2× bin
ENTRY SIGNAL CALIBRATIONentry characteristics vs realized outcomes
Entry Signal Calibration Scatter Plots
Entry Multiple vs Realized MOIC
Amber dashed = linear trend. Higher entry multiple → lower realized MOIC historically.
Hold Period vs Realized MOIC
Longer holds show modest MOIC boost but compress IRR.
Predicted vs Realized MOIC (45° = perfect)
Points on/near the trend line = well-calibrated. Scatter above/below = model bias.
MODEL STATISTICScorpus OLS calibration accuracy
Model Calibration Statistics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Mean Absolute Error (MAE) | 1.243x |
| RMSE | 2.046x |
| Mean Bias (predicted – realized) | -0.059x |
| R² (corpus regression) | -1.090 |
| Calibrated pairs (with entry multiple + hold) | 318 |
Model: OLS on entry EV/EBITDA + hold years + payer mix adjustment (corpus-calibrated).
Prediction formula: MOIC ≈ 3.2 − 0.10×multiple + 0.12×hold + payer_adj
SECTOR BENCHMARKSP50 MOIC by healthcare sector
Sector-Level MOIC Distribution (≥3 realized deals)
| Sector | N | P25 MOIC | P50 MOIC | P75 MOIC | Loss% | 3×+% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| managed_care_services | 4 | 3.70x | 4.25x | 4.62x | 0.0% | 75.0% |
| asc | 8 | 3.27x | 3.65x | 3.80x | 0.0% | 75.0% |
| urgent_care | 3 | 3.25x | 3.50x | 3.75x | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Dermatology | 3 | 3.15x | 3.40x | 3.45x | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Healthcare IT / RCM | 3 | 2.75x | 3.30x | 4.05x | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| hospice | 4 | 3.20x | 3.30x | 4.00x | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| oncology | 5 | 3.20x | 3.30x | 3.60x | 0.0% | 80.0% |
| Orthopedics | 3 | 3.00x | 3.20x | 3.35x | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| cardiology | 3 | 1.80x | 3.20x | 4.35x | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| primary_care | 3 | 1.65x | 3.20x | 3.35x | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| dme_home_health | 6 | 2.33x | 3.15x | 3.67x | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| Behavioral Health | 3 | 1.75x | 3.10x | 3.45x | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Dental | 3 | 2.80x | 3.10x | 5.80x | 0.0% | 66.7% |
| health_it | 32 | 2.27x | 3.10x | 4.03x | 9.4% | 62.5% |
| behavioral_health | 11 | 2.00x | 3.00x | 3.20x | 9.1% | 54.5% |
| dialysis | 5 | 2.20x | 3.00x | 3.10x | 0.0% | 60.0% |
| physician_group | 20 | 1.85x | 2.90x | 3.58x | 10.0% | 50.0% |
| managed_care | 19 | 2.05x | 2.80x | 3.65x | 15.8% | 47.4% |
| digital_health | 3 | 2.50x | 2.50x | 3.35x | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| home_health | 11 | 2.45x | 2.50x | 3.15x | 0.0% | 36.4% |
| Unknown | 101 | 1.40x | 2.40x | 3.20x | 21.8% | 33.7% |
| ltach_post_acute | 5 | 2.30x | 2.40x | 2.50x | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| dental | 5 | 1.20x | 2.20x | 4.20x | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| hospital | 12 | 0.55x | 2.10x | 2.50x | 41.7% | 8.3% |
| physical_therapy | 4 | 1.30x | 2.05x | 2.58x | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| radiology | 3 | 0.65x | 0.70x | 1.75x | 66.7% | 0.0% |