Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
40
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside18/25
Market Position14/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency0/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-35.0%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -50.0%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-63.3%, -6.7%]. P10 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 826318.875 | -0.1051 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.177 | -0.0972 | Lower State Peer Margin decreases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.079 | -0.0533 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.068 | +0.0383 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 110426.250 | -0.0253 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 8%Low turnaround probability (8%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and State Peer Margin.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
55.7%
Distress Risk
$1.6M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
-26.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P93. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
KS distress rate: 76.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.134 | +0.363 | ▲ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.166 | -0.090 | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.003 | -0.085 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 826318.875 | +0.044 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.585 | +0.044 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 8.000 | -0.019 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.6M
Current margin: -50.0%
Projected margin: -26.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 26
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.134 | 0.288 | 15.5% | $1.0M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.166 | 0.886 | 72.0% | $557K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 45.4 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Average — predicted days in ar is near the median. |
| Clean Claim Rate | 94.1% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Average — predicted clean claim rate is near the median. |
| Net Collection Rate | 96.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P0 | Average — predicted net collection rate is near the median. |