Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
37
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health3/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position6/20
Demand Defensibility4/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 6.0x – 8.5x
Est. MOIC: 1.5x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Heavy Medicare dependence (>55%)
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-6.2%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -8.6%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-34.5%, 22.1%]. P46 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 366879.080 | -0.1692 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 398544.580 | +0.1551 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 165769.035 | -0.0235 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma | |
| Net-to-Gross | 0.546 | +0.0198 | Higher Net-to-Gross increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.142 | +0.0172 | Higher Reimbursement Quality increases predicted m |
Turnaround: 39%Turnaround possible (39%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on improving Revenue/Bed.
Rural/Critical Access
Archetype
54.6%
Distress Risk
$8.4M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
37.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Rural/Critical Access
Percentile within cluster: P30. Rural/small hospitals face structural headwinds. Evaluate CAH conversion, telehealth, and rural health funding.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| BRECKINRIDGE HEALTH INC | KY | 25 |
| SHERIDAN MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | MT | 19 |
| DAYTON GENERAL HOSPITAL | WA | 25 |
| BLUE MOUNTAIN HOSPITAL DISTRICT | OR | 16 |
| COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | WY | 25 |
| CARLE EUREKA HOSPITAL | IL | 25 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
CA distress rate: 49.7%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.546 | +0.079 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 366879.080 | +0.072 | ▲ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.452 | +0.068 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.711 | +0.066 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.029 | -0.060 | ▼ risk |
| Beds | 50.000 | -0.013 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $8.4M
Current margin: -8.6%
Projected margin: 37.1%
Grade: A
Comps: 104
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.260 | 0.701 | 44.1% | $6.6M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.452 | 0.721 | 26.9% | $1.8M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 29.2 | [25.0, 75.0] | P52 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |