About this page
Runs a grid of rate, volume, multiple-compression, lever-slip, and labor-shock scenarios against this deal and scores the deal's robustness across the grid.
Scale
Robustness grade: A = β₯ 90% downside pass rate and zero covenant breaches; B = β₯ 80% pass rate and β€ 1 breach; C = β₯ 60% pass rate; D = β₯ 40%; F = below 40%.
How to use
Use downside pass rate + breach count to size covenant headroom and stress reserves. A grade-D deal needs more cushion in the capital structure or should not proceed at this leverage.
Source: pe_intelligence/stress_test.py::_robustness_grade (grade thresholds); run_stress_grid (scenario set).
← DEAL DASHBOARDΒ·PARTNER REVIEW βΒ·RED FLAGS βΒ·ARCHETYPE βΒ·INVESTABILITY βΒ·MARKET STRUCTURE βΒ·WHITE SPACE βΒ·STRESS GRIDΒ·IC PACKET βΒ·WORKBENCH β
ROBUSTNESS GRADEF0% downside pass-rate Β· 0 covenant breaches
Deal fails under most downside scenarios β do not bring to IC as modeled.
Robustness
F
grade A-F
Downside Pass
0%
of scenarios
Upside Capture
0%
of scenarios
Covenant Breaches
0
across grid
Worst Case
β
EBITDA delta
Best Case
β
EBITDA delta
SCENARIO GRIDdownside + upside + baseline sweep11
Downside scenarios (10)DOW
| Scenario | Severity | EBITDA Ξ | Passes | Covenant | Partner Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| rate down 100bps | DOWNSIDE | β | FAIL | β | EBITDA goes negative under this shock. Deal is not viable. |
| rate down 200bps | DOWNSIDE | β | FAIL | β | EBITDA goes negative under this shock. Deal is not viable. |
| rate down 300bps | DOWNSIDE | β | FAIL | β | EBITDA goes negative under this shock. Deal is not viable. |
| volume down 5pct | DOWNSIDE | β | FAIL | β | Volume shock breaks the covenant. Tighten the operating plan or reduce leverage. |
| volume down 10pct | DOWNSIDE | β | FAIL | β | Volume shock breaks the covenant. Tighten the operating plan or reduce leverage. |
| multiple compression flat | DOWNSIDE | β | β | β | Cannot run β multiples, EBITDA, or base MOIC missing. |
| lever slip 60pct | DOWNSIDE | β | FAIL | β | Reduced lever realization leaves exit EBITDA at or below entry. Thesis is fragile. |
| lever slip 40pct | DOWNSIDE | β | FAIL | β | Reduced lever realization leaves exit EBITDA at or below entry. Thesis is fragile. |
| labor shock 10pct | DOWNSIDE | β | FAIL | β | Labor shock tips the deal β reduce agency dependency or re-size debt. |
| labor shock 20pct | DOWNSIDE | β | FAIL | β | Labor shock tips the deal β reduce agency dependency or re-size debt. |
Upside scenarios (1)UPS
| Scenario | Severity | EBITDA Ξ | Passes | Covenant | Partner Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| lever full realization | UPSIDE | β | FAIL | β | Reduced lever realization leaves exit EBITDA at or below entry. Thesis is fragile. |
Baseline scenariosBAS
No scenarios in this severity.
Regulatory scenariosREG
No scenarios in this severity.