Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
49
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health18/25
RCM Upside5/25
Market Position9/20
Demand Defensibility8/15
Operational Efficiency9/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
0.3%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: 16.7%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-28.0%, 28.6%]. P63 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1043018.338 | +0.0757 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1251438.205 | -0.0458 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| State Peer Margin | -0.006 | +0.0290 | Higher State Peer Margin increases predicted margi | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.260 | -0.0167 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 5.017 | +0.0149 | Higher Log(Beds) increases predicted margin |
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
46.0%
Distress Risk
$1.5M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
17.4%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P55. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: Elevated
National distress rate: 49.3%
TX distress rate: 42.8%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.009 | -0.079 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.158 | -0.029 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.312 | -0.025 | ▼ risk |
| Occupancy Rate | 0.547 | -0.020 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1251438.205 | +0.019 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 151.000 | +0.000 | ▲ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.5M
Current margin: 16.7%
Projected margin: 17.4%
Grade: D
Comps: 165
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.547 | 0.740 | 19.3% | $1.3M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.312 | 0.322 | 1.0% | $228K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 25.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P0 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |