Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
42
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency8/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Low occupancy (<30%) — demand risk
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-16.5%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -21.2%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-44.8%, 11.8%]. P25 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 2695799.048 | -0.1279 | Higher Expense/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 2223258.143 | +0.0899 | Higher Revenue/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.417 | -0.0620 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Log(Beds) | 3.045 | -0.0309 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Bed Count | 21.000 | +0.0199 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin |
Turnaround: 24%Low turnaround probability (24%). Structural disadvantages in Expense/Bed and Revenue/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$1.8M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
-17.3%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.279 | +0.228 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 2223258.143 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.417 | +0.022 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 21.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $1.8M
Current margin: -21.2%
Projected margin: -17.3%
Grade: D
Comps: 47
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.279 | 0.556 | 27.7% | $1.8M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |