Investability Score
Speculative — only pursue if turnaround thesis is strong and entry multiple reflects risk.
43
/ 100 (D)
Financial Health5/25
RCM Upside19/25
Market Position8/20
Demand Defensibility7/15
Operational Efficiency4/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
- Expenses exceed revenue
Catalysts:
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-13.1%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -16.4%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-41.4%, 15.2%]. P31 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue/Bed | 846102.750 | -0.1023 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Expense/Bed | 984411.600 | +0.0829 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Log(Beds) | 2.996 | -0.0320 | Lower Log(Beds) decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.300 | -0.0282 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 259278.336 | -0.0204 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 28%Low turnaround probability (28%). Structural disadvantages in Revenue/Bed and Expense/Bed.
nan%
Distress Risk
$3.3M
RCM Opportunity
A
Opportunity Grade
3.4%
Projected Margin
Distress Analysis
Risk: Unknown
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.306 | +0.203 | ▲ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.376 | +0.008 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | nan | +nan | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.480 | +0.050 | ▲ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 846102.750 | +0.043 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 20.000 | -0.017 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.3M
Current margin: -16.4%
Projected margin: 3.4%
Grade: A
Comps: 46
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payer Mix Optimization | 0.624 | 0.748 | 12.4% | $1.9M | 50% | 24mo |
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.306 | 0.530 | 22.4% | $1.5M | 55% | 24mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
B
RCM Grade
Average RCM profile — some improvement opportunities. Standard diligence scope recommended.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 25.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P83 | Below average — denial rate suggests RCM improvement opportu |
| Days in AR | 75.0 | [25.0, 75.0] | P83 | Below average — days in ar suggests RCM improvement opportun |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |