Investability Score
Hold / Selective — investigate specific opportunities but be prepared for execution risk.
47
/ 100 (C)
Financial Health6/25
RCM Upside17/25
Market Position15/20
Demand Defensibility3/15
Operational Efficiency6/15
Entry Multiple: 8.0x – 10.0x
Est. MOIC: 1.9x
Risk Factors:
- Negative operating margin
- Small facility (<50 beds) — limited scale
Catalysts:
- Strong commercial payer base protects revenue
- Limited competition supports pricing power
Margin Prediction (Trained Ridge Model)
-9.8%
R²=0.34 | n=4,907 | Grade B | Actual: -1.5%
Ridge regression trained on 4,907 HCRIS hospitals. 90% CI: [-38.1%, 18.5%]. P38 nationally.
| Driver | Value | Effect | Explanation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Expense/Bed | 1208913.659 | +0.0552 | Higher Expense/Bed increases predicted margin | |
| Revenue/Bed | 1190691.250 | -0.0542 | Lower Revenue/Bed decreases predicted margin | |
| Reimbursement Quality | 0.317 | -0.0333 | Higher Reimbursement Quality decreases predicted m | |
| Bed Count | 44.000 | +0.0163 | Higher Bed Count increases predicted margin | |
| Bed Utilization Value | 424230.095 | -0.0149 | Lower Bed Utilization Value decreases predicted ma |
Turnaround: 33%Turnaround possible (33%) but uncertain. Margin improvement depends on Expense/Bed.
Suburban Community Hospit
Archetype
50.3%
Distress Risk
$3.0M
RCM Opportunity
D
Opportunity Grade
4.1%
Projected Margin
Cluster: Suburban Community Hospital
Percentile within cluster: P71. Community hospitals — the largest PE deal category. Focus on RCM improvement and cost optimization at 9-11x.
Nearest Peers
| Hospital | State | Beds |
|---|---|---|
| PROMEDICA HICKMAN HOSPITAL | MI | 58 |
| WATAUGA MEDICAL CENTER | NC | 95 |
| ST LUKES HOSPITAL - EASTON CAMPUS | PA | 29 |
| CULPEPER MEMORIAL HOSPITAL | VA | 70 |
| SOUTHSIDE COMMUNITY HOSPITAL | VA | 80 |
| SPECTRUM HEALTH LUDINGTON | MI | 45 |
Distress Analysis
Risk: High
National distress rate: 49.3%
PA distress rate: 48.1%
Model AUC: 0.629
| Factor | Value | Contribution | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Rate | 0.356 | +0.157 | ▲ risk |
| Medicaid Day Pct | 0.006 | -0.083 | ▼ risk |
| Medicare Day Pct | 0.104 | -0.038 | ▼ risk |
| Revenue Per Bed | 1190691.250 | +0.023 | ▲ risk |
| Beds | 44.000 | -0.014 | ▼ risk |
| Net To Gross Ratio | 0.356 | -0.005 | ▼ risk |
RCM Improvement Opportunity
Total (risk-adjusted): $3.0M
Current margin: -1.5%
Projected margin: 4.1%
Grade: D
Comps: 80
Gap analysis vs P75 peers with 60% closure assumption. Confidence-weighted by lever implementation difficulty.
| Lever | Current | Benchmark | Gap | Impact | Confidence | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Occupancy Improvement | 0.356 | 0.724 | 36.7% | $2.4M | 55% | 24mo |
| Net-to-Gross Ratio Improvement | 0.356 | 0.446 | 8.9% | $548K | 65% | 18mo |
Predicted RCM Performance (Public Data Only)
A
RCM Grade
Strong RCM profile — likely low-risk from an operations perspective. Focus diligence on growth thesis.
| Metric | Predicted | 90% CI | Percentile | Assessment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denial Rate | 2.0% | [2.0%, 25.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted denial rate is in the top third nationall |
| Days in AR | 28.5 | [25.0, 75.0] | P47 | Strong — predicted days in ar is in the top third nationally |
| Clean Claim Rate | 98.0% | [80.0%, 98.0%] | P0 | Strong — predicted clean claim rate is in the top third. |
| Net Collection Rate | 99.5% | [90.0%, 99.5%] | P8 | Strong — predicted net collection rate is in the top third. |